Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,414 of 84,120 nationally
Lee Manor Eviction Risk: Lower , Manassas
Tract 51683910402 · Manassas city, VA · pop 7,088 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 51683910402 covers part of the Lee Manor area of Manassas, VA, and scores 3.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 7,088 residents. 30% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 6%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units2,089
Renter share13.5%
SVI overall0.44
Poverty rate3.3%
Median income$152,050
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
20
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Manassas and the region
Centroid at 38.7391, -77.4918 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lee Manor scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Manassas
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,792 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Manassas
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Manassas
6.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Manassas
5.0
How Lee Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 44
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 23%Socioeconomic
- 54%Household composition
- 67%Racial/ethnic minority
- 61%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lee Manor. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.9%Housing insecurity
- 5.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.9%Food insecurity
- 7.5%SNAP enrollment
- 6.2%Transit barriers
- 9.6%No health insurance
- 14.8%Frequent mental distress
- 26.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lee Manor
58% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Manassas City average of 44.2%. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.7/10.
It sits 0.9 points below the Manassas City average of 4.0. SNAP participation runs 7.5% against 15.2% nationally. Nationally it ranks #65,414 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 14% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 14% of average household income of $152,050, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Average gross rent is $1,792, close to the Manassas average.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51683910402
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51683910402?
Census tract 51683910402 in the Lee Manor neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51683910402?
Median gross rent is $1,792/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51683910402?
3.3% of residents in tract 51683910402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,088.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51683910402?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 44th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 23th, household 54th, minority 67th, housing 61th.
Q5
Is tract 51683910402 considered part of Lee Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51683910402 fall within Lee Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51683910402 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51683910402 compare to Manassas overall?
Tract 51683910402 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Manassas at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manassas eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Manassas
Top eight tracts in Manassas ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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