Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #19,562 of 84,120 nationally
Church Hill North Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond
Tract 51760020700 · Richmond city, VA · pop 1,637 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Eviction risk in the Church Hill North neighborhood of Richmond centers on tract 51760020700, which scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier) and is home to 1,637 residents. It lands near the 91st percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
57% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 28% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $870 monthly, set against $62,543 in average yearly household income, roughly 17% of income at the averages. Renters make up 54% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units813
Renter share54.1%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate28.1%
Median income$62,543
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
93
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Richmond and the region
Centroid at 37.5369, -77.4113 · click any tract to drill in
Why Church Hill North scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
28.1% poverty · this tract
7.0
Supply constraint
$870 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0
How Church Hill North compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 66
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 64%Socioeconomic
- 12%Household composition
- 80%Racial/ethnic minority
- 87%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 57%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 448Total filings over 4 yrs
- 28.31%Avg annual filing rate
- 31.3%Peak (2015)
- 111Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.5%Housing insecurity
- 12.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.9%Food insecurity
- 20.6%SNAP enrollment
- 11.6%Transit barriers
- 10.1%No health insurance
- 18.7%Frequent mental distress
- 34.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Church Hill North
The heaviest input here is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Richmond eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Richmond City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 448 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 28.3% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 31.3% of renter households in 2015.
In CDC survey modeling, about 17.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51760020700
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760020700?
Census tract 51760020700 in the Church Hill North neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51760020700?
Median gross rent is $870/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51760020700?
28.1% of residents in tract 51760020700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,637.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51760020700?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 12th, minority 80th, housing 87th.
Q5
Is tract 51760020700 considered part of Church Hill North?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760020700 fall within Church Hill North (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51760020700?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 448 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51760020700 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 28.31% of renter households, peaking at 31.3% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51760020700 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51760020700 compare to Richmond overall?
Tract 51760020700 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Richmond at 4.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51760020700 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 57% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Richmond
Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Creighton Court
6.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Fairmount
6.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Carver
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Montrose Heights
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Oak Grove
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Gilpin Court
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
South Garden
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Monroe Ward
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
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