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Neighborhood · Ranked #8,912 of 84,120 nationally

Oak Grove Eviction Risk: Elevated , Richmond

Tract 51760060700 · Richmond city, VA · pop 5,636 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Eviction risk in the Oak Grove area of Richmond centers on tract 51760060700, which scores 7.1/10 (Elevated tier) and is home to 5,636 residents. That is riskier than roughly 95% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 52% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $944 a month while the average household earns $33,426 a year, roughly 34% of income at the averages. Renters make up 72% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 37% Stable renters 35% Owners 28%
Tract context
Occupied units2,080
Renter share72.4%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate44.0%
Median income$33,426

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Oak Grove
Very High
Within parent city
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#6 of 75 tracts In Richmond
Very High
Within county
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 75 tracts In Richmond city
Very High
Within state
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#15 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Richmond and the region

Centroid at 37.5050, -77.4366 · click any tract to drill in

Why Oak Grove scores 6.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
44.0% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$944 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0

How Oak Grove compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Oak Grove risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.36.3This tracttract 060700Richmond: 4.74.7Richmondparent cityCounty: 4.64.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 98

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 3,401Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 58.42%Avg annual filing rate
  • 67.0%Peak (2014)
  • 697Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2013 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 517600607002013: 809 filings (56.02/100 renter HHs)2014: 967 filings (66.97/100 renter HHs)2015: 928 filings (64.27/100 renter HHs)2016: 697 filings (46.40/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Oak Grove. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Oak Grove

The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Richmond eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Richmond City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 4% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.

The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 98th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51760060700

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760060700?

Census tract 51760060700 in the Oak Grove neighborhood scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51760060700?

Median gross rent is $944/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51760060700?

44.0% of residents in tract 51760060700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,636.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51760060700?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 97th, minority 92th, housing 82th.
Q5

Is tract 51760060700 considered part of Oak Grove?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760060700 fall within Oak Grove (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51760060700?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3,401 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51760060700 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 58.42% of renter households, peaking at 67.0% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51760060700 struggle to pay rent?

About 36.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 28.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51760060700 compare to Richmond overall?

Tract 51760060700 scores 6.3/10, higher than the parent city of Richmond at 4.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 51760060700 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 4% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Richmond

Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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