Oak Grove Eviction Risk: Moderate

Severe burden reaches 31%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The poverty rate is 35%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 31.6% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. The clearest offset is supply constraint, at 1.6/10. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

70% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. On the high side is economic stress at 8.1/10.

Average gross rent is $1,067, 22% below the Richmond average of $1,372. Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 4.5 to 5.7, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. Disability prevalence reaches 46.1% against a 31.5% national average, which raises the odds a reasonable-accommodation request accompanies any dispute.

Filings are well documented here: 4,320 across 2 observed tracts. Well under the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure, at 2.5/10.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.2 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.