Neighborhood · Ranked #35,899 of 84,120 nationally

Blackwell Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond

Tract 51760061002 · Richmond city, VA · pop 3,626 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

The Elevated-tier score of 6.3/10 for census tract 51760061002 reflects conditions in the Blackwell area of Richmond, Virginia. That is riskier than roughly 82% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

48% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,495 monthly, set against $57,114 in average yearly household income, roughly 31% of income at the averages. About 95% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

4.3

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 46% Stable renters 50% Owners 4%

Tract context

Occupied units2,791

Renter share95.4%

SVI overall0.09

Poverty rate9.9%

Median income$57,114

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Richmond and the region

Centroid at 37.5257, -77.4398 · click any tract to drill in

Why Blackwell scores 4.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Richmond

7.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

9.9% poverty · this tract

2.5

Supply constraint

$1,495 rent vs county FMR

3.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Richmond

2.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Richmond

6.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Richmond

5.0

How Blackwell compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 9

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

36%Socioeconomic
1%Household composition
62%Racial/ethnic minority
16%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
5%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.0%Housing insecurity
7.2%Utility-shutoff threat
11.8%Food insecurity
8.8%SNAP enrollment
8.0%Transit barriers
7.5%No health insurance
18.9%Frequent mental distress
23.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Blackwell

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Richmond eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Richmond City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 5% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 9th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51760061002

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760061002?

Census tract 51760061002 in the Blackwell neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51760061002?

Median gross rent is $1,495/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51760061002?

9.9% of residents in tract 51760061002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,626.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51760061002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 36th, household 1th, minority 62th, housing 16th.

Is tract 51760061002 considered part of Blackwell?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760061002 fall within Blackwell (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51760061002 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51760061002 compare to Richmond overall?

Tract 51760061002 scores 4.3/10, lower than the parent city of Richmond at 4.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51760061002 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 5% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Richmond

Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.