Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally
Blackwell Eviction Risk: Lower , Richmond
Tract 51760061002 · Richmond city, VA · pop 3,626 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
51760061002 is a census tract in the Blackwell area of Richmond, VA. It scores 3.8/10 for landlords. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.8/10.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46%
Stable renters 50%
Owners 4%
Tract context
Occupied units2,791
Renter share95.4%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate9.9%
Median income$57,114
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
37
th percentile
Low
Within county
35
th percentile
Low
Within state
45
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Richmond and the region
Centroid at 37.5257, -77.4398 · click any tract to drill in
Why Blackwell scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.9% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$1,495 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0
How Blackwell compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 36%Socioeconomic
- 1%Household composition
- 62%Racial/ethnic minority
- 16%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 5%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.0%Housing insecurity
- 7.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.8%Food insecurity
- 8.8%SNAP enrollment
- 8.0%Transit barriers
- 7.5%No health insurance
- 18.9%Frequent mental distress
- 23.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Blackwell
95% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Severe burden reaches 24%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.4/10.
On the high side, local political climate reads 7.5/10. Average gross rent is $1,495, 9% above the Richmond average.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. On the national scale it lands near the 38th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.8/10. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. 48% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
It tracks the Richmond City average of 4.3 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51760061002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760061002?
Census tract 51760061002 in the Blackwell neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51760061002?
Median gross rent is $1,495/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51760061002?
9.9% of residents in tract 51760061002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,626.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51760061002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 36th, household 1th, minority 62th, housing 16th.
Q5
Is tract 51760061002 considered part of Blackwell?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760061002 fall within Blackwell (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51760061002 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51760061002 compare to Richmond overall?
Tract 51760061002 scores 3.8/10, lower than the parent city of Richmond at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 51760061002 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 5% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
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Highest-risk tracts in Richmond
Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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/ 10 · Elevated
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5.7
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5.7
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