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Neighborhood · Ranked #41,065 of 84,120 nationally

Fernleigh Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond

Tract 51760070100 · Richmond city, VA · pop 5,412 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

In the Fernleigh area of Richmond, census tract 51760070100 scores $1/10 for eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #22,326 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 30% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a moderate level, and 17% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,765 monthly, set against $89,356 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. About 30% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 21% Owners 70%
Tract context
Occupied units2,921
Renter share30.4%
SVI overall0.18
Poverty rate14.1%
Median income$89,356

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Fernleigh
Moderate
Within parent city
31 th percentile
Rank, 31st percentileLowHigh
#52 of 75 tracts In Richmond
Low
Within county
31 th percentile
Rank, 31st percentileLowHigh
#52 of 75 tracts In Richmond city
Low
Within state
74 th percentile
Rank, 74th percentileLowHigh
#577 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Richmond and the region

Centroid at 37.5440, -77.5653 · click any tract to drill in

Why Fernleigh scores 4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
14.1% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$1,765 rent vs county FMR
5.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0

How Fernleigh compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Fernleigh risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.04.0This tracttract 070100Richmond: 4.74.7Richmondparent cityCounty: 4.64.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 18

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 172Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 7.52%Avg annual filing rate
  • 12.0%Peak (2014)
  • 27Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2013 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 517600701002013: 36 filings (6.44/100 renter HHs)2014: 67 filings (11.99/100 renter HHs)2015: 42 filings (7.51/100 renter HHs)2016: 27 filings (4.13/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 25% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Fernleigh

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Richmond eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Richmond City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 6.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 18th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51760070100

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760070100?

Census tract 51760070100 in the Fernleigh neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51760070100?

Median gross rent is $1,765/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51760070100?

14.1% of residents in tract 51760070100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,412.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51760070100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 20th, household 11th, minority 32th, housing 41th.
Q5

Is tract 51760070100 considered part of Fernleigh?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760070100 fall within Fernleigh (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51760070100?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 172 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51760070100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.52% of renter households, peaking at 12.0% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51760070100 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51760070100 compare to Richmond overall?

Tract 51760070100 scores 4/10, lower than the parent city of Richmond at 4.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Richmond

Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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