Neighborhood · Ranked #19,562 of 84,120 nationally

Rugby Eviction Risk: Moderate , Roanoke

Tract 51770002501 · Roanoke city, VA · pop 2,336 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

How risky is Rugby in Roanoke for landlords? Census tract 51770002501 scores 5.7/10, the Moderate tier. That is riskier than about 63% of US census tracts.

About 34% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 26% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $857 a month against an average household income of $46,951 a year, roughly 22% of income at the averages. About 64% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.4

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 42% Owners 36%

Tract context

Occupied units1,134

Renter share64.2%

SVI overall0.89

Poverty rate24.1%

Median income$46,951

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Roanoke and the region

Centroid at 37.2808, -79.9610 · click any tract to drill in

Why Rugby scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Roanoke

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.3

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

24.1% poverty · this tract

6.0

Supply constraint

$857 rent vs county FMR

2.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Roanoke

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Roanoke

4.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Roanoke

4.5

How Rugby compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 89

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

86%Socioeconomic
61%Household composition
92%Racial/ethnic minority
89%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
1%Grade C
57%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

27.1%Housing insecurity
19.3%Utility-shutoff threat
35.3%Food insecurity
35.5%SNAP enrollment
17.7%Transit barriers
15.2%No health insurance
21.3%Frequent mental distress
42.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Rugby

The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Roanoke eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Roanoke City County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 89th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 27.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 19.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51770002501

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51770002501?

Census tract 51770002501 in the Rugby neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51770002501?

Median gross rent is $857/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51770002501?

24.1% of residents in tract 51770002501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,336.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51770002501?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 86th, household 61th, minority 92th, housing 89th.

Is tract 51770002501 considered part of Rugby?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51770002501 fall within Rugby (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51770002501 struggle to pay rent?

About 27.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51770002501 compare to Roanoke overall?

Tract 51770002501 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Roanoke at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Roanoke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51770002501 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 57% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Roanoke

Top eight tracts in Roanoke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.