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Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally

Rugby Eviction Risk: Moderate , Roanoke

Tract 51770002501 · Roanoke city, VA · pop 2,336 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

With a score of 4.7/10, tract 51770002501 in the Rugby area of Roanoke, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.5/10.

Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 42% Owners 36%
Tract context
Occupied units1,134
Renter share64.2%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate24.1%
Median income$46,951

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Rugby
Moderate
Within parent city
71 th percentile
Rank, 71st percentileLowHigh
#8 of 25 tracts In Roanoke
Elevated
Within county
71 th percentile
Rank, 71st percentileLowHigh
#8 of 25 tracts In Roanoke city
Elevated
Within state
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#649 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Roanoke and the region

Centroid at 37.2808, -79.9610 · click any tract to drill in

Why Rugby scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Roanoke
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
24.1% poverty · this tract
6.0
Supply constraint
$857 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Roanoke
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Roanoke
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Roanoke
4.5

How Rugby compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Rugby risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.7This tracttract 0025014.0Roanokeparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 89

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Rugby

26% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Food insecurity runs 35.3% against 17.8% nationally.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. 34% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Roanoke City average of 42.8%.

The poverty rate is 24%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 19.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.5/10. Average gross rent is $857, 14% below the Roanoke average.

This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Roanoke. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. Nationally it ranks #37,882 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51770002501

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51770002501?

Census tract 51770002501 in the Rugby neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51770002501?

Median gross rent is $857/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51770002501?

24.1% of residents in tract 51770002501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,336.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51770002501?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 86th, household 61th, minority 92th, housing 89th.
Q5

Is tract 51770002501 considered part of Rugby?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51770002501 fall within Rugby (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51770002501 struggle to pay rent?

About 27.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51770002501 compare to Roanoke overall?

Tract 51770002501 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Roanoke at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Roanoke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 51770002501 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 57% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Roanoke

Top eight tracts in Roanoke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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