Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Basic City Eviction Risk: Moderate , Waynesboro
Tract 51820003200 · Waynesboro city, VA · pop 4,862 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
51820003200 is a census tract in the Basic City area of Waynesboro, VA. It scores 5.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,862 residents. 32% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 21%
Owners 65%
Tract context
Occupied units1,977
Renter share35.6%
SVI overall0.94
Poverty rate20.2%
Median income$41,304
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Waynesboro and the region
Centroid at 38.0591, -78.8916 · click any tract to drill in
Why Basic City scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Waynesboro
5.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.7
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
20.2% poverty · this tract
5.1
Supply constraint
$870 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Waynesboro
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Waynesboro
8.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Waynesboro
5.9
How Basic City compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 94
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 90%Socioeconomic
- 98%Household composition
- 52%Racial/ethnic minority
- 82%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 524Total filings over 4 yrs
- 13.10%Avg annual filing rate
- 15.0%Peak (2013)
- 143Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Basic City. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.3%Housing insecurity
- 14.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 28.3%Food insecurity
- 29.1%SNAP enrollment
- 14.6%Transit barriers
- 15.5%No health insurance
- 21.9%Frequent mental distress
- 43.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Basic City
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.8/10. SNAP participation runs 29.1% against 15.2% nationally.
Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.2/10. 41% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Waynesboro City average of 47.5%.
The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. It sits 1.1 points above the Waynesboro City average of 4.2. Court records carry 524 eviction filings across 4 observed years.
Average gross rent is $870, 15% below the Waynesboro average. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Filings peaked in 2013 at 15.0% of renter households.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51820003200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51820003200?
Census tract 51820003200 in the Basic City neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51820003200?
Median gross rent is $870/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51820003200?
20.2% of residents in tract 51820003200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,862.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51820003200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 94th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 98th, minority 52th, housing 82th.
Q5
Is tract 51820003200 considered part of Basic City?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51820003200 fall within Basic City (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51820003200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 524 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51820003200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.10% of renter households, peaking at 15.0% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51820003200 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51820003200 compare to Waynesboro overall?
Tract 51820003200 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Waynesboro at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Waynesboro eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Waynesboro
Top eight tracts in Waynesboro ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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