Beale Street Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

The severe-burden share is 30%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. The poverty rate is 38%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

81% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10.

Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 3.1 to 5.4, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. Running hot is economic stress at 7.6/10. At $1,018 a month, rents sit 14% under what the rest of Memphis commands.

Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.9/10. That places it #12 of 26 neighborhoods in Memphis. For a like-for-like read, Raleigh and Orange Mound score within a fraction of it.

Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $40,151.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.3 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.