Beale Street Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Memphis

The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income of $37,866, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The poverty rate is 30%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running cool, state political climate reads 1.9/10.

It sits 1.1 points above the Shelby County average of 4.3. Running hot, economic stress reads 7.4/10. Average gross rent is $1,028, 13% below the Memphis average.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. Nationally it ranks #24,859 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the TN average is 3.9, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 45% of renters.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.