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Neighborhood · Ranked #10,727 of 84,120 nationally

Arlington Mill Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 51013102200 · Arlington County, VA · pop 8,197 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

With a score of 7.4/10, tract 51013102200 in the Arlington Mill area of Arlington, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 8,197. Cost burden runs 57% here against 38.9% across Arlington County.

Risk score
7.4
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 27% Owners 37%
Tract context
Occupied units2,923
Renter share63.3%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate17.3%
Median income$79,068

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Arlington Mill
Moderate
Within parent city
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 71 tracts In Arlington
Very High
Within county
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
Very High
Within state
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#15 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8578, -77.1183 · click any tract to drill in

Why Arlington Mill scores 7.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.3% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$1,688 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0

How Arlington Mill compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Arlington Mill risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 7.47.4This tracttract 102200Arlington: 6.06.0Arlingtonparent cityCounty: 5.95.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 89

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 194Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 8.36%Avg annual filing rate
  • 8.4%Peak (2016)
  • 194Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Arlington Mill

Severe burden reaches 36%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The dominant input is local political climate at 8.5/10. At $1,688 a month, rents run 27% under what the rest of Arlington commands.

Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. It sits 1.5 points above the Arlington County average of 5.9.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.3/10. The filing record is not thin: 194 evictions over 1 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2016 at 8.4% of renter households.

In a typical year about 8.4% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 87% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.2 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $79,068.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013102200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013102200?

Census tract 51013102200 in the Arlington Mill neighborhood scores 7.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51013102200?

Median gross rent is $1,688/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013102200?

17.3% of residents in tract 51013102200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 8,197.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013102200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 76th, minority 84th, housing 84th.
Q5

Is tract 51013102200 considered part of Arlington Mill?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013102200 fall within Arlington Mill (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013102200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 194 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013102200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.36% of renter households, peaking at 8.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51013102200 struggle to pay rent?

About 18.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51013102200 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013102200 scores 7.4/10, higher than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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