Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #10,727 of 84,120 nationally
Douglas Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Arlington
Tract 51013102701 · Arlington County, VA · pop 3,705 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51013102701 is a census tract in the Douglas Park area of Arlington, VA. It scores 7.4/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,705. 95% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Risk score
7.4
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46%
Stable renters 49%
Owners 5%
Tract context
Occupied units1,429
Renter share95.3%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate13.9%
Median income$61,648
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
93
th percentile
Very High
Within county
94
th percentile
Very High
Within state
99
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.8559, -77.1021 · click any tract to drill in
Why Douglas Park scores 7.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
13.9% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$1,537 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Douglas Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 80
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 82%Socioeconomic
- 61%Household composition
- 87%Racial/ethnic minority
- 66%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 11Total filings over 1 yrs
- 0.74%Avg annual filing rate
- 0.7%Peak (2016)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Douglas Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.5%Housing insecurity
- 12.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 24.9%Food insecurity
- 20.1%SNAP enrollment
- 12.4%Transit barriers
- 17.4%No health insurance
- 17.5%Frequent mental distress
- 32.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Douglas Park
At $1,537 a month, rents run 34% under what the rest of Arlington commands. What pushes it up most is local political climate at 8.5/10.
Severe burden reaches 22%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.6/10.
Against Arlington County at 38.9%, 48% of renters here are cost-burdened. Against the Arlington County average of 5.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points.
On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Court records carry 11 eviction filings across 1 observed years.
Food insecurity runs 24.9% against 17.8% nationally. Filings peaked in 2016 at 0.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 0.7% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 87% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013102701
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013102701?
Census tract 51013102701 in the Douglas Park neighborhood scores 7.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013102701?
Median gross rent is $1,537/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013102701?
13.9% of residents in tract 51013102701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,705.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013102701?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 61th, minority 87th, housing 66th.
Q5
Is tract 51013102701 considered part of Douglas Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013102701 fall within Douglas Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013102701?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 11 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013102701 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.74% of renter households, peaking at 0.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51013102701 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51013102701 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013102701 scores 7.4/10, higher than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Arlington Mill
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Virginia Highlands
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lyon Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Buckingham
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Addison Heights
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Arlington View
6.8
/ 10 · Elevated
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