Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally
Lynhaven Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington
Tract 51013103403 ·
Arlington County, VA · pop 1,401 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
51013103403 is a census tract in the Lynhaven area of Arlington, VA. It scores 5.5/10 for landlords. Population here is 1,401. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36%Stable renters 35%Owners 29%
Tract context
Occupied units1,129
Renter share71.5%
SVI overall0.12
Poverty rate2.3%
Median income$128,393
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Lynhaven
Moderate
Within parent city
36th percentile
#46 of 71 tracts In Arlington
Low
Within county
40th percentile
#43 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
Moderate
Within state
89th percentile
#251 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.8447, -77.0523 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lynhaven scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,623 rent vs county FMR
6.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Lynhaven compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 12
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
13%Socioeconomic
2%Household composition
67%Racial/ethnic minority
49%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
7.3%Housing insecurity
4.5%Utility-shutoff threat
6.3%Food insecurity
4.1%SNAP enrollment
4.5%Transit barriers
5.4%No health insurance
13.5%Frequent mental distress
16.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lynhaven
Cost burden runs 50% here against 38.9% across Arlington County. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.5/10.
This is renter territory: 71% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Disability prevalence runs 16.9% against 31.5% nationally.
18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. SNAP participation runs 4.1% against 15.2% nationally.
The voucher gap is 13.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Average gross rent is $2,623, 13% above the Arlington average. On the national scale it lands near the 72nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013103403
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013103403?
Census tract 51013103403 in the Lynhaven neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013103403?
Median gross rent is $2,623/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013103403?
2.3% of residents in tract 51013103403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,401.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013103403?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 13th, household 2th, minority 67th, housing 49th.
Q5
Is tract 51013103403 considered part of Lynhaven?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013103403 fall within Lynhaven (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51013103403 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51013103403 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013103403 scores 5.5/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.