Dowden Terrace Eviction Risk: Elevated , Bailey's Crossroads

The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.4/10. 29% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.4/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10. The poverty rate is 24%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Court records carry 466 eviction filings across 4 observed years.

The worst year on record was 2016, when 10.6% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 7.5% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 89th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.5 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.