Keene Mill Heights Eviction Risk: Lower , Burke
Tract 51059431002 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,238 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Here is how census tract 51059431002, in the Keene Mill Heights neighborhood of Burke eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 4.9/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 2,238. It lands near the 34th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 26% of renter households, a moderate level, and 10% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,574 monthly, set against $129,605 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. About 25% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Burke and the region
Centroid at 38.7772, -77.2549 · click any tract to drill in
Why Keene Mill Heights scores 1.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Keene Mill Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 21
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 26%Socioeconomic
- 52%Household composition
- 75%Racial/ethnic minority
- 6%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 22Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.27%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.3%Peak (2011)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Keene Mill Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.4%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.2%Food insecurity
- 8.7%SNAP enrollment
- 6.7%Transit barriers
- 7.8%No health insurance
- 13.2%Frequent mental distress
- 23.2%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Keene Mill Heights
What moves this score most is supply constraint at 6.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Burke eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 21st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
In CDC survey modeling, about 10.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
About tract 51059431002
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059431002?
What is the average rent in tract 51059431002?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059431002?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059431002?
Is tract 51059431002 considered part of Keene Mill Heights?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059431002?
What share of households in tract 51059431002 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51059431002 compare to Burke overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Burke
Top eight tracts in Burke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.