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Neighborhood · Ranked #80,791 of 84,120 nationally

Keene Mill Heights Eviction Risk: Lower , Burke

Tract 51059431002 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,238 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Here is how census tract 51059431002, in the Keene Mill Heights neighborhood of Burke eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 4.9/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 2,238. It lands near the 34th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 26% of renter households, a moderate level, and 10% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,574 monthly, set against $129,605 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. About 25% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 18% Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units732
Renter share24.6%
SVI overall0.21
Poverty rate5.6%
Median income$129,605

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Keene Mill Heights
Very High
Within parent city
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 10 tracts In Burke
High
Within county
54 th percentile
Rank, 54th percentileLowHigh
#126 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Moderate
Within state
16 th percentile
Rank, 16th percentileLowHigh
#1,847 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Burke and the region

Centroid at 38.7772, -77.2549 · click any tract to drill in

Why Keene Mill Heights scores 1.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Burke
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.6% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$2,574 rent vs county FMR
6.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Burke
4.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Burke
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Burke
3.6

How Keene Mill Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Keene Mill Heights risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.31.3This tracttract 431002Burke: 3.63.6Burkeparent cityCounty: 1.51.5Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 21

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 22Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 3.27%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.3%Peak (2011)
  • 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594310022011: 7 filings (4.27/100 renter HHs)2012: 3 filings (1.83/100 renter HHs)2013: 6 filings (3.66/100 renter HHs)2016: 6 filings (3.33/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Keene Mill Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Keene Mill Heights

What moves this score most is supply constraint at 6.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Burke eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 21st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059431002

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059431002?

Census tract 51059431002 in the Keene Mill Heights neighborhood scores 1.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059431002?

Median gross rent is $2,574/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 26% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059431002?

5.6% of residents in tract 51059431002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,238.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059431002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 21th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 26th, household 52th, minority 75th, housing 6th.
Q5

Is tract 51059431002 considered part of Keene Mill Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059431002 fall within Keene Mill Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059431002?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 22 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059431002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.27% of renter households, peaking at 4.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059431002 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059431002 compare to Burke overall?

Tract 51059431002 scores 1.3/10, lower than the parent city of Burke at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Burke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Burke

Top eight tracts in Burke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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