Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally
Penderlan Eviction Risk: Moderate , Fair Oaks
Tract 51059491707 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,832 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
51059491707 is a census tract in the Penderlan area of Fair Oaks, VA. It scores 5.7/10 for landlords. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.5/10.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 35%
Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units1,867
Renter share51.3%
SVI overall0.46
Poverty rate6.7%
Median income$144,836
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
86
th percentile
High
Within state
91
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fair Oaks and the region
Centroid at 38.8694, -77.3766 · click any tract to drill in
Why Penderlan scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fair Oaks
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.7% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$2,231 rent vs county FMR
4.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fair Oaks
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fair Oaks
9.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fair Oaks
4.7
How Penderlan compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 46
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 30%Socioeconomic
- 23%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 74%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Penderlan. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.1%Housing insecurity
- 4.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.9%Food insecurity
- 5.6%SNAP enrollment
- 5.5%Transit barriers
- 6.6%No health insurance
- 13.2%Frequent mental distress
- 21.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Penderlan
Running cool, economic stress reads 1.7/10. Severe burden reaches 18%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, around a third of renters here are cost-burdened. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.4 points. SNAP participation runs 5.6% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 8.9% against 17.8% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.2/10.
Nationally it ranks #21,564 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 5.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Average gross rent is $2,231, close to the Fair Oaks average. Annual rent works out to 18% of average household income of $144,836.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491707
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491707?
Census tract 51059491707 in the Penderlan neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059491707?
Median gross rent is $2,231/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491707?
6.7% of residents in tract 51059491707 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,832.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491707?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 30th, household 23th, minority 73th, housing 74th.
Q5
Is tract 51059491707 considered part of Penderlan?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491707 fall within Penderlan (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059491707 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059491707 compare to Fair Oaks overall?
Tract 51059491707 scores 5.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Fair Oaks at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fair Oaks eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fair Oaks
Top eight tracts in Fair Oaks ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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