Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Penderwood Eviction Risk: Moderate , Difficult Run
Tract 51059482603 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,908 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
51059482603 is a census tract in the Penderwood area of Fair Oaks, VA. It scores 5.3/10 for landlords. Population here is 2,908. Severe burden reaches 53%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 73%
Tract context
Occupied units1,258
Renter share26.9%
SVI overall0.25
Poverty rate0.8%
Median income$138,160
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
79
th percentile
High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Difficult Run and the region
Centroid at 38.8789, -77.3772 · click any tract to drill in
Why Penderwood scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Difficult Run
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,440 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Difficult Run
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Difficult Run
9.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Difficult Run
4.7
How Penderwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 25
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 10%Socioeconomic
- 45%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 36%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Penderwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.3%Housing insecurity
- 3.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.1%Food insecurity
- 3.4%SNAP enrollment
- 3.8%Transit barriers
- 4.6%No health insurance
- 10.5%Frequent mental distress
- 20.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Penderwood
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 90% of renters here are cost-burdened. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.5/10.
Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. Food insecurity runs 6.1% against 17.8% nationally.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.0 points. Housing insecurity runs 5.3% against 14.2% nationally. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.2/10.
Nationally it ranks #28,095 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 3.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Average gross rent is $2,440, close to the Fair Oaks average.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059482603
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059482603?
Census tract 51059482603 in the Penderwood neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059482603?
Median gross rent is $2,440/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 90% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059482603?
0.8% of residents in tract 51059482603 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,908.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059482603?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 25th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 45th, minority 64th, housing 36th.
Q5
Is tract 51059482603 considered part of Penderwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059482603 fall within Penderwood (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059482603 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059482603 compare to Difficult Run overall?
Tract 51059482603 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Difficult Run at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Difficult Run; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Difficult Run
Top eight tracts in Difficult Run ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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