Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally
Colony Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Fairfax Station
Tract 51059430201 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,100 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
With a score of 3.5/10, tract 51059430201 in the Colony Park area of Kings Park West, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,100 residents. Severe burden reaches 42%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units1,398
Renter share7.6%
SVI overall0.14
Poverty rate3.9%
Median income$157,625
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
33
th percentile
Low
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fairfax Station and the region
Centroid at 38.8083, -77.2964 · click any tract to drill in
Why Colony Park scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fairfax Station
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,596 rent vs county FMR
6.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fairfax Station
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fairfax Station
3.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fairfax Station
6.5
How Colony Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 14
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 15%Socioeconomic
- 40%Household composition
- 59%Racial/ethnic minority
- 8%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 22Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.73%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.5%Peak (2011)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 33% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Colony Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.8%Housing insecurity
- 4.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.7%Food insecurity
- 4.8%SNAP enrollment
- 4.7%Transit barriers
- 6.2%No health insurance
- 12.3%Frequent mental distress
- 21.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Colony Park
Cost burden runs roughly two in three here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.3/10.
SNAP participation runs 4.8% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 7.7% against 17.8% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
The filing record is not thin: 22 evictions over 4 years of observation. It sits 0.8 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. The voucher gap is 12.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
The worst year on record was 2011, when 4.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 2.7% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #57,812 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059430201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059430201?
Census tract 51059430201 in the Colony Park neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059430201?
Median gross rent is $2,596/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059430201?
3.9% of residents in tract 51059430201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,100.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059430201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 14th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 40th, minority 59th, housing 8th.
Q5
Is tract 51059430201 considered part of Colony Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059430201 fall within Colony Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059430201?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 22 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059430201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.73% of renter households, peaking at 4.5% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059430201 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059430201 compare to Fairfax Station overall?
Tract 51059430201 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Fairfax Station at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fairfax eviction risk Station; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fairfax Station
Top eight tracts in Fairfax Station ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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