Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally
Mount Hebron Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Franconia
Tract 51059420201 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,688 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51059420201 covers part of the Mount Hebron Park area of Franconia, VA, and scores 3.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units1,312
Renter share7.6%
SVI overall0.10
Poverty rate3.6%
Median income$193,830
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
30
th percentile
Low
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Franconia and the region
Centroid at 38.7895, -77.1461 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mount Hebron Park scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Franconia
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,681 rent vs county FMR
6.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Franconia
3.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Franconia
5.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Franconia
2.8
How Mount Hebron Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 10
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 15%Socioeconomic
- 30%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 4%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 20Total filings over 4 yrs
- 4.84%Avg annual filing rate
- 12.3%Peak (2016)
- 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 200% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.3%Housing insecurity
- 5.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.0%Food insecurity
- 6.0%SNAP enrollment
- 5.3%Transit barriers
- 6.7%No health insurance
- 12.3%Frequent mental distress
- 21.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mount Hebron Park
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 51% of renters here are cost-burdened. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.3/10. 17% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
SNAP participation runs 6.0% against 15.2% nationally. The voucher gap is 15.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Food insecurity runs 9.0% against 17.8% nationally.
Well under the midpoint, housing-court posture reads 2.8/10. Court records carry 20 eviction filings across 4 observed years. It sits 0.8 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 12.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 4.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 31% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
At 8% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 1.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059420201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059420201?
Census tract 51059420201 in the Mount Hebron Park neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059420201?
Median gross rent is $2,681/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059420201?
3.6% of residents in tract 51059420201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,688.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059420201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 10th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 30th, minority 70th, housing 4th.
Q5
Is tract 51059420201 considered part of Mount Hebron Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059420201 fall within Mount Hebron Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059420201?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 20 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059420201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.84% of renter households, peaking at 12.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059420201 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059420201 compare to Franconia overall?
Tract 51059420201 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Franconia at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Franconia; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Franconia
Top eight tracts in Franconia ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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