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Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally

Walhaven Eviction Risk: Lower , Franconia

Tract 51059422302 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,775 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

51059422302 is a census tract in the Walhaven area of Franconia, VA. It scores 3.7/10 for landlords. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.4/10.

Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 12% Owners 79%
Tract context
Occupied units2,793
Renter share21.4%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate5.7%
Median income$136,477

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Walhaven
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 5 tracts In Franconia
Very High
Within county
43 th percentile
Rank, 43rd percentileLowHigh
#157 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Moderate
Within state
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#1,298 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Franconia and the region

Centroid at 38.7720, -77.1438 · click any tract to drill in

Why Walhaven scores 3.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Franconia
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.7% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$2,432 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Franconia
3.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Franconia
5.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Franconia
2.8

How Walhaven compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Walhaven risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.73.7This tracttract 422302Franconia: 4.04.0Franconiaparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 37

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 31Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 1.47%Avg annual filing rate
  • 1.7%Peak (2016)
  • 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594223022011: 8 filings (1.69/100 renter HHs)2012: 7 filings (1.48/100 renter HHs)2013: 5 filings (1.06/100 renter HHs)2016: 11 filings (1.66/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 38% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Walhaven. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Walhaven

Running hot, local political climate reads 8.3/10. Running cool, housing-court posture reads 2.8/10.

The filing record is not thin: 31 evictions over 4 years of observation. SNAP participation runs 6.8% against 15.2% nationally.

Food insecurity runs 9.5% against 17.8% nationally. The worst year on record was 2016, when 1.7% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 1.5% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 35th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

At 21% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Rent takes 30% or more of income for 44% of renters.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059422302

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059422302?

Census tract 51059422302 in the Walhaven neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059422302?

Median gross rent is $2,432/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059422302?

5.7% of residents in tract 51059422302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,775.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059422302?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 33th, household 50th, minority 73th, housing 26th.
Q5

Is tract 51059422302 considered part of Walhaven?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059422302 fall within Walhaven (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059422302?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 31 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059422302 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.47% of renter households, peaking at 1.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059422302 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059422302 compare to Franconia overall?

Tract 51059422302 scores 3.7/10, lower than the parent city of Franconia at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Franconia; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Franconia

Top eight tracts in Franconia ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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