Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Springfield Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Franconia
Tract 51059421001 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,723 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 3.4/10, tract 51059421001 in the Springfield Forest area of Franconia, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,723 residents. Cost burden runs 20% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units1,020
Renter share21.9%
SVI overall0.23
Poverty rate0.5%
Median income$145,060
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
25
th percentile
Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Franconia and the region
Centroid at 38.7709, -77.1573 · click any tract to drill in
Why Springfield Forest scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Franconia
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,825 rent vs county FMR
7.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Franconia
3.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Franconia
5.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Franconia
2.8
How Springfield Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 23
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 31%Socioeconomic
- 35%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 10%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 31Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.12%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.8%Peak (2013)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.8%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.4%Food insecurity
- 6.0%SNAP enrollment
- 5.5%Transit barriers
- 7.4%No health insurance
- 12.6%Frequent mental distress
- 21.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Springfield Forest
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.3/10.
The voucher gap is 22.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. SNAP participation runs 6.0% against 15.2% nationally.
On the softer side, housing-court posture reads 2.8/10. It sits 0.9 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 31 filings here across 4 tracked years. Food insecurity runs 9.4% against 17.8% nationally.
The worst year on record was 2013, when 4.8% of renter households were served. Average gross rent is $2,825, 8% above the Franconia average. In a typical year about 3.1% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 29th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 22% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 3.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059421001
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059421001?
Census tract 51059421001 in the Springfield Forest neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059421001?
Median gross rent is $2,825/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 20% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059421001?
0.5% of residents in tract 51059421001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,723.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059421001?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 23th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 31th, household 35th, minority 74th, housing 10th.
Q5
Is tract 51059421001 considered part of Springfield Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059421001 fall within Springfield Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059421001?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 31 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059421001 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.12% of renter households, peaking at 4.8% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059421001 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059421001 compare to Franconia overall?
Tract 51059421001 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Franconia at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Franconia; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Franconia
Top eight tracts in Franconia ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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