Within parent city
40
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally
Chantilly Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51059490105 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,878 · 75% of tract blocks fall in Chantilly
Census tract 51059490105 covers part of Chantilly, VA, and scores 3.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,878. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 12%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 74%
Tract context
Occupied units1,082
Renter share26.3%
SVI overall0.17
Poverty rate3.8%
Median income$165,833
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
27
th percentile
Low
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
National
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chantilly and the region
Centroid at 38.8804, -77.4515 · click any tract to drill in
Why Chantilly scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chantilly
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,558 rent vs county FMR
6.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chantilly
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chantilly
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chantilly
4.7
How Chantilly compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 17
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 25%Socioeconomic
- 32%Household composition
- 62%Racial/ethnic minority
- 9%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.6%Food insecurity
- 4.6%SNAP enrollment
- 4.6%Transit barriers
- 6.3%No health insurance
- 12.4%Frequent mental distress
- 20.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Chantilly
SNAP participation runs 4.6% against 15.2% nationally. 47% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 7.1/10. It sits 0.8 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Housing insecurity runs 7.0% against 14.2% nationally.
At $2,558 a month, rents run 11% over what the rest of Chantilly commands. Nationally it ranks #57,812 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.6/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
Annual rent works out to 19% of average household income of $165,833. 26% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059490105
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059490105?
Census tract 51059490105 in Chantilly scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059490105?
Median gross rent is $2,558/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059490105?
3.8% of residents in tract 51059490105 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,878.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059490105?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 25th, household 32th, minority 62th, housing 9th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 51059490105 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 51059490105 compare to Chantilly overall?
Tract 51059490105 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Chantilly at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chantilly eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chantilly
Top eight tracts in Chantilly ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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