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Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally

Five Forks Eviction Risk: Lower , Burke

Tract 51059431001 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,953 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Census tract 51059431001 covers part of the Five Forks area of Burke, VA, and scores 3.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,953 residents. Cost burden runs 64% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.

Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 4% Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,850
Renter share11.5%
SVI overall0.42
Poverty rate4.1%
Median income$141,383

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Five Forks
Moderate
Within parent city
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 10 tracts In Burke
High
Within county
28 th percentile
Rank, 28th percentileLowHigh
#198 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Low
Within state
35 th percentile
Rank, 35th percentileLowHigh
#1,425 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Burke and the region

Centroid at 38.7807, -77.2713 · click any tract to drill in

Why Five Forks scores 3.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Burke
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,595 rent vs county FMR
6.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Burke
4.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Burke
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Burke
3.6

How Five Forks compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Five Forks risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.53.5This tracttract 431001Burke: 4.04.0Burkeparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 42

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 31Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 2.93%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.8%Peak (2011)
  • 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594310012011: 9 filings (3.78/100 renter HHs)2012: 7 filings (2.94/100 renter HHs)2013: 6 filings (2.52/100 renter HHs)2016: 9 filings (2.46/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Five Forks

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. 14% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10. SNAP participation runs 6.7% against 15.2% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 31 evictions over 4 years of observation.

Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.9/10. It sits 0.8 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Food insecurity runs 10.4% against 17.8% nationally.

The voucher gap is 12.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Average gross rent is $2,595, 10% below the Burke average.

The worst year on record was 2011, when 3.8% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 2.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #57,812 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

At 12% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059431001

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059431001?

Census tract 51059431001 in the Five Forks neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059431001?

Median gross rent is $2,595/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059431001?

4.1% of residents in tract 51059431001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,953.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059431001?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 42th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 69th, minority 74th, housing 17th.
Q5

Is tract 51059431001 considered part of Five Forks?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059431001 fall within Five Forks (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059431001?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 31 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059431001 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.93% of renter households, peaking at 3.8% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059431001 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059431001 compare to Burke overall?

Tract 51059431001 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Burke at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Burke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Burke

Top eight tracts in Burke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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