Five Forks Eviction Risk: Lower , Burke

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. 14% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10. SNAP participation runs 6.7% against 15.2% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 31 evictions over 4 years of observation.

Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.9/10. It sits 0.8 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Food insecurity runs 10.4% against 17.8% nationally.

The voucher gap is 12.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Average gross rent is $2,595, 10% below the Burke average.

The worst year on record was 2011, when 3.8% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 2.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #57,812 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

At 12% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.