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McLean, Virginia eviction risk overview
Ranked #1,531 of 1,861 nationally

McLean, VA Eviction Risk: MODERATE

Fairfax County · Population 49,627

In 2026
Risk score
4.2
MODERATE

21th percentile, Virginia.

50-yr Eviction Risk Score history

1976 — 2026 · climbing fast since 2010

Min1.5 Average2.6 Now4.2
10 5 1976 · score 1.7 1977 · score 1.7 1978 · score 1.8 1979 · score 1.8 1980 · score 1.7 1981 · score 1.8 1982 · score 1.8 1983 · score 1.8 1984 · score 1.5 1985 · score 1.6 1986 · score 1.6 1987 · score 1.6 1988 · score 1.7 1989 · score 1.7 1990 · score 1.8 1991 · score 1.8 1992 · score 2.0 1993 · score 2.0 1994 · score 2.1 1995 · score 2.1 1996 · score 2.1 1997 · score 2.2 1998 · score 2.2 1999 · score 2.2 2000 · score 1.7 2001 · score 1.8 2002 · score 1.8 2003 · score 1.8 2004 · score 2.1 2005 · score 2.1 2006 · score 2.2 2007 · score 2.2 2008 · score 2.7 2009 · score 2.9 2010 · score 2.9 2011 · score 3.0 2012 · score 2.9 2013 · score 3.0 2014 · score 3.1 2015 · score 3.1 2016 · score 3.6 2017 · score 3.7 2018 · score 3.9 2019 · score 4.0 2020 · score 4.7 2021 · score 4.7 2022 · score 4.7 2023 · score 4.7 2024 · score 4.6 2025 · score 4.2 2026 · score 4.2

Key metrics

Time machine

Scrub 50 years

2026
● LIVE · today ◀ REPLAY · historical

Nine-axis profile

9-axis profile · today

Shape of the risk surface

1 landlord · 10 tenant
Local 8.4 Regional 8.4 State 3.2 Economic 3.2 Supply 6.7 Rent Control 5.9 Eviction 3.2 Tenant 3.4 Housing 4.1 4.2 MODERATE
Sub-scores · with sparkline

Where the score comes from

1 → 10 scale
  1. Local political climate
    Dem margin +35.0% (2024)
    8.4
  2. Regional political climate
    County-weighted neighbor mix
    8.4
  3. State political climate
    Virginia legislature & governorship
    3.2
  4. Economic stress
    2.7% poverty · 2.2% unemp.
    3.2
  5. Supply constraint
    $3,422 average · 13.9% renters
    6.7
  6. Rent Control risk
    29.6% of income on rent
    5.9
  7. Eviction process difficulty
    57 days filing → judgment
    3.2
  8. Tenant organizing strength
    13.9% renters
    3.4
  9. Housing court bias
    County bench composition
    4.1
Geographic context

Risk heat across McLean and the region

Click any city to see its score

How McLean compares

Risk score vs. peers, county, state, and the U.S.
Rank in Fairfax County
Very Low
#59 of 65 cities
Rank in county — 9th percentileBottomTop
#59 of 65 cities in Fairfax County for landlord eviction risk.
Rank in Virginia
Low
#546 of 683 cities
Rank in state — 20th percentileBottomTop
#546 of 683 cities in Virginia for landlord eviction risk.
vs. county · state · U.S.
McLean risk score vs. county / state / U.S.McLean: 4.24.2McLeanThis cityCounty: 5.35.3Countyavg in countyState: 5.35.3Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.35.3U.S.national avg
Score story

Six-stop tour of the risk profile

  1. 4.2
    / 10 · MODERATE
    The verdict

    A Moderate-tier market.

    Composite 4.2/10. Mid-range market; standard documentation usually wins. The 50-year curve shows a sharp climb.

    50-yr trend+2.5 over 50 yr
    197620012026

    Steepening since 2010 · COVID inflection visible

  2. 57d
    Typical timeline
    The money

    What renting (and evicting) looks like.

    Rent published at $3,422/mo. A contested eviction takes 57 days and costs $1,817–$5,248 per case.

    50-yr trendCalendar drag rising since '15
    197620012026

    Court-clerk data lands in the next release.

  3. 13.9%
    Renters
    The renters

    Who you'll be renting to.

    Out of 49,627 residents, 13.9% rent. 30% are spending 30%+ income on rent, 2.7% below the poverty line.

    50-yr trendRenter share rising
    197620012026

    ACS 1970-present · once the migration overlay is in.

  4. 8.4
    Local + regional
    The politics

    Strong-tenant coastal market.

    Local & regional political climate score 8.4 and 8.4 (Dem margin +35.0% (2024)). State climate at 3.2 — mid-range statehouse.

    50-yr trendTracks county vote margin
    197620012026

    Built on 50-yr presidential margins back to 1976.

  5. 3.2
    State politics
    The process

    Moderate calendar, moderate friction.

    State political climate 3.2/10 sets the legislative ceiling for landlord remedies — and shows up in process. Eviction process difficulty reads 3.2, housing court bias 4.1, rent-control risk 5.9. Standard process speed for the state.

    50-yr trendProcess difficulty +-1.8 since '00
    197620012026

    Court-clerk data lands in the next release.

  6. 3.2
    Economic stress
    The stress

    Economic pressure is the background risk.

    Economic stress: 3.2. Supply constraint: 6.7. The numbers behind those: 2.7% poverty, 2.2% unemployment, 30% of income on rent.

    50-yr trendTwo visible dips · '08 + COVID
    197620012026

    Mirrors BLS unemployment series.

US eviction landscape · timeline × all-in cost

McLean sits in the quick & cheap quadrant

Bubble size = population · color = risk score
QUICK BUT COSTLY fast docket · high all-in loss SLOW & EXPENSIVE long calendar · high all-in loss QUICK & CHEAP fast docket · low all-in loss SLOW BUT CHEAP long calendar · low all-in loss 30d 50d 75d 100d 150d 200d 300d 450d $2.0k $3.0k $5.0k $7.5k $10k $15k $20k $30k EVICTION TIMELINE (DAYS) → ↑ ALL-IN COST (LOG SCALE) Arlington, VA · 57d · ~$4.2k all-in ($73/day) · score 6.1 Arlington Alexandria, VA · 58d · ~$3.7k all-in ($65/day) · score 6.0 Alexandria Centreville, VA · 51d · ~$3.6k all-in ($70/day) · score 5.2 Centreville Dale City, VA · 49d · ~$3.8k all-in ($78/day) · score 5.1 Dale City Reston, VA · 50d · ~$3.8k all-in ($76/day) · score 5.1 Reston Virginia Beach, VA · 50d · ~$3.9k all-in ($79/day) · score 4.3 Virginia Beach Chesapeake, VA · 54d · ~$3.9k all-in ($72/day) · score 4.0 Chesapeake Norfolk, VA · 53d · ~$3.7k all-in ($70/day) · score 5.2 Norfolk Richmond, VA · 55d · ~$3.5k all-in ($64/day) · score 5.6 Richmond Newport News, VA · 52d · ~$4.1k all-in ($79/day) · score 4.7 Newport News Houston, TX · 24d · ~$2.5k all-in ($103/day) · score 3.4 Houston Phoenix, AZ · 38d · ~$3.3k all-in ($86/day) · score 3.7 Phoenix Memphis, TN · 31d · ~$2.0k all-in ($66/day) · score 4.2 Memphis Atlanta, GA · 40d · ~$2.8k all-in ($69/day) · score 4.9 Atlanta Boston, MA · 187d · ~$20.3k all-in ($109/day) · score 8.1 Boston Chicago, IL · 109d · ~$9.0k all-in ($82/day) · score 6.8 Chicago New York, NY · 417d · ~$29.5k all-in ($71/day) · score 7.8 New York Seattle, WA · 162d · ~$12.7k all-in ($79/day) · score 8.2 Seattle McLean
McLean · 57d · ~$3.5k all-in ($62/day) · score 4.2 National average: 58d · $4.6k all-in Hover any bubble for stats · click to open Color: 0–4   4–7   7–10
00Overview

About eviction risk in McLean, VA

Landlording in McLean, Virginia, presents a manageable operating environment for documented landlords. The Eviction Risk Score is 4.2/10 (MODERATE tier), drawn from the nine sub-axes shown above — covering rent-control exposure, eviction-process difficulty, housing-court bias, tenant-organizing strength, supply constraint, economic stress, and local, regional, and state political climate. This is not a quick-fix market: it's a Mid-tier market where lease drafting, screening discipline, and well-documented notices materially change outcomes.

McLean is a city of 49,627 residents where 13.9% of occupied units are renter-occupied, and the typical renter spends 29.6% of income on rent. At an average rent of $3,422/month, the typical renter household here spends more than the federal 30% threshold on housing — a leading indicator of payment volatility and a precondition for the kinds of tenant defenses that show up most often in housing court.

01Process

How McLean eviction process actually works

Eviction process difficulty here reads 3.2/10 — a number that combines statutory complexity (notice categories, just-cause rules, mandatory pre-filing disclosures) with operational realities (court calendar length and clerk responsiveness). The typical contested filing in McLean closes 57 days after the initial notice. For non-payment of rent the first step is a properly-formatted, properly-served pay-or-quit notice; for material lease breaches it's a cure-or-quit; for tenancies under just-cause protection an at-fault grounds notice (or a no-fault notice with statutory relocation assistance) is required.

The slow part of McLean's timeline is usually the calendar, not the motion practice. Housing court bias scores 4.1/10 here, meaning judges read borderline procedural defects in the tenant's favor more often than the national norm. The practical implication: every notice and every proof of service needs to be airtight before it gets filed.

02Cost

What it costs (and how long it takes)

An all-in eviction in McLean runs $1,817 to $5,248 per case once you account for filing fees, attorney time, lost rent during pendency, sheriff lockout, and unit turnover. That range is wide because the upper bound assumes a tenant answer plus motion practice — common when housing court bias is high. The lower bound assumes a default judgment after proper service.

For landlords running the numbers on holding costs vs. cash-for-keys: if your projected timeline times your monthly rent already exceeds the high-end cost number, cash-for-keys at 1–2 months' rent is typically the economically rational choice. With 57 days of typical timeline and $3,422/month in lost rent, that crossover happens fast here.

03Operations

Security deposits, screening, and lease terms

Tenant organizing strength scores 3.4/10 in McLean, and the city has limited rent control exposure (5.9/10). Operations practice that survives audit in this environment looks like:

  • Screening discipline. Document income (verified at 2.5–3x rent), credit (with a clear minimum), and prior-tenancy reference checks — but do not screen on protected categories or source-of-income where banned. Keep a written, consistent screening criteria document for every applicant.
  • Lease specificity. Use a state-specific lease that names every term clearly: rent due date, late fees within statutory caps, deposit handling, smoke and CO disclosure, lead paint disclosure (pre-1978 stock), and a clean attorney's-fees clause.
  • Security deposit handling. Itemize deductions within the statutory window. Photograph move-in/move-out condition. In Virginia, deposit cap and refund window are statute — exceed at your own risk.
  • Mid-tenancy documentation. Keep date-stamped records of every rent receipt, every habitability request, every notice served. The day you need them in court is too late to start.
04Strategy

What an everyday landlord should actually do here

If you own one to four units in McLean: hire a property manager who knows the local court. The pricing differential between self-managing and hiring out is small relative to the cost of one botched eviction in a MODERATE tier market. If you own five or more: build relationships with a local landlord-side attorney before you need one — retainer fees are negligible compared to emergency-rate billing when an eviction is already moving.

The avoidable mistakes here are all upstream of the filing: weak screening, an informal lease, sloppy rent receipts, and notice templates pulled off the internet that don't match Virginia's statutory language. Fix those four, and most cases settle or default. Skip them, and a $5,248 all-in fight is the realistic worst case.

04bPractical traps

Local traps to avoid in McLean

Trap · 5.9/10
Comparative benchmarking matters in markets like this. McLean's 4.2/10 is below the Virginia state average. Rent-control-risk sub-score: 5.9/10. See the nearby cities grid below for direct A-vs-B comparison.
04Eviction filings

Live filings tracking · Eviction Lab

Princeton Eviction Lab Tracking System, state-level (no county tracker available). Last update 2026-05-01.

In the most recent month, 10,534 eviction cases were filed across the tracker's coverage area — 1.07× the historical baseline (near baseline). Past 12 months: 139,873 filings. Pandemic-era cumulative: 643,855.

  • 10,534Past month
  • 139,873Past 12 months
  • 1.07×vs baseline (past mo)
Notice requirement: at least five days notice (in some cases more). Filing fee: minimum filing fee of $36.
Last 36 months of filings 2023-05-01 — 2026-04-01
Monthly eviction filings (Eviction Lab tracker)2023-05-01: 11,279 filings (0.99× hist)2023-06-01: 11,871 filings (1.01× hist)2023-07-01: 11,681 filings (1.01× hist)2023-08-01: 11,916 filings (1.00× hist)2023-09-01: 11,466 filings (1.00× hist)2023-10-01: 12,415 filings (1.00× hist)2023-11-01: 10,388 filings (0.96× hist)2023-12-01: 11,234 filings (1.04× hist)2024-01-01: 12,658 filings (1.00× hist)2024-02-01: 12,400 filings (1.08× hist)2024-03-01: 10,487 filings (0.95× hist)2024-04-01: 10,082 filings (1.02× hist)2024-05-01: 11,419 filings (1.01× hist)2024-06-01: 11,744 filings (1.00× hist)2024-07-01: 11,546 filings (0.99× hist)2024-08-01: 11,845 filings (1.00× hist)2024-09-01: 11,560 filings (1.00× hist)2024-10-01: 12,537 filings (1.01× hist)2024-11-01: 11,255 filings (1.04× hist)2024-12-01: 10,429 filings (0.96× hist)2025-01-01: 14,590 filings (1.15× hist)2025-02-01: 10,161 filings (0.91× hist)2025-03-01: 11,563 filings (1.04× hist)2025-04-01: 10,358 filings (1.05× hist)2025-05-01: 11,904 filings (1.05× hist)2025-06-01: 10,882 filings (0.92× hist)2025-07-01: 13,152 filings (1.13× hist)2025-08-01: 11,685 filings (0.98× hist)2025-09-01: 11,970 filings (1.04× hist)2025-10-01: 12,965 filings (1.04× hist)2025-11-01: 10,193 filings (0.94× hist)2025-12-01: 10,630 filings (0.98× hist)2026-01-01: 12,943 filings (1.02× hist)2026-02-01: 11,303 filings (1.01× hist)2026-03-01: 11,712 filings (1.06× hist)2026-04-01: 10,534 filings (1.07× hist)
Filings dropped 12% over the past 12 months.
05FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Q1

What happens if my McLean tenant pays rent late, but before I file for eviction?

If your tenant pays all outstanding rent and late fees within the 5-day notice period, or even before you file in court (and it's their first non-payment in 12 months), you cannot proceed with the eviction for that specific non-payment. The notice is satisfied, and you'd have to start over if they missed rent again later.

Q2

Can I evict a tenant in McLean for lease violations other than non-payment?

Yes. For material non-compliance with the lease (e.g., unauthorized pets, property damage, illegal activities), you must typically issue a 30-day notice to cure or quit. If the tenant doesn't fix the issue within 21 days, and then move out by the 30th day, you can file for eviction. Some severe violations, like criminal activity, may allow for a shorter notice period.

Q3

Do I need a lawyer for an eviction in McLean?

While you can represent yourself in General District Court, it's highly recommended to use an attorney, especially if the tenant contests the eviction. Virginia's laws can be complex, and a small procedural error can lead to delays or even dismissal of your case, costing you more time and money. Given the average cost and timeline, professional help is often a wise investment.

Q4

What if my tenant abandons the property in McLean?

If you have reasonable belief a tenant has abandoned the property (e.g., no belongings, utilities shut off, no response to communication), you can post a 10-day notice of abandonment. If they don't respond, you can legally take possession. Document everything thoroughly with photos and written records before re-entering and re-renting. This avoids the need for a full eviction process.

Q5

Are there rent control laws in McLean, VA?

Currently, there are no statewide rent control laws in Virginia. However, McLean's rent control risk sub-score is 5.9/10, which is moderate. This indicates there might be local political pressure or legislative efforts in the future. Always stay informed about potential changes at the state and local level. Our Virginia rent control rules guide provides ongoing updates.

06Score

What this score means for landlords2

A 4.2/10 places McLean in the 21th percentile of Virginia cities on the Eviction Risk Score index. The score is the average of the nine sub-axes, all calibrated on a national 1–10 scale where 1 is most landlord-friendly and 10 is most tenant-protective. The 50-year reconstruction shows this score has risen sharply since 1976 — a structural drift driven by court-calendar growth, rent-control adoption, and the rise of tenant-side legal aid. The trajectory matters more than the snapshot: the score is the climate, not the weather.