Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Pohick Hills Eviction Risk: Lower , Newington
Tract 51059432701 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,333 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51059432701 sits in the Pohick Hills area of Newington, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.4/10. It is home to 3,333 residents. about one in five of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well under the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 90%
Tract context
Occupied units1,076
Renter share9.8%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate2.7%
Median income$168,493
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
20
th percentile
Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newington and the region
Centroid at 38.7540, -77.2207 · click any tract to drill in
Why Pohick Hills scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newington
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,801 rent vs county FMR
7.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newington
4.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newington
3.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newington
3.2
How Pohick Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 5
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 5%Socioeconomic
- 56%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 17Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.23%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.1%Peak (2011)
- 5Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Pohick Hills. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.5%Housing insecurity
- 4.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.8%Food insecurity
- 4.2%SNAP enrollment
- 4.3%Transit barriers
- 5.7%No health insurance
- 11.6%Frequent mental distress
- 21.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Pohick Hills
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. The voucher gap is 21.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
Food insecurity runs 6.8% against 17.8% nationally. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.8/10. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points.
Court records carry 17 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Housing insecurity runs 6.5% against 14.2% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2011 at 3.1% of renter households. In a typical year about 3.2% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 29% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 10% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.5/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.8 points cooler.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059432701
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059432701?
Census tract 51059432701 in the Pohick Hills neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059432701?
Median gross rent is $2,801/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 18% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059432701?
2.7% of residents in tract 51059432701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,333.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059432701?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 5th, household 56th, minority 61th, housing 1th.
Q5
Is tract 51059432701 considered part of Pohick Hills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059432701 fall within Pohick Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059432701?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 17 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059432701 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.23% of renter households, peaking at 3.1% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059432701 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059432701 compare to Newington overall?
Tract 51059432701 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Newington at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newington; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newington
Top eight tracts in Newington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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