Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally
Rollingwood Eviction Risk: Lower , Newington
Tract 51059432800 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,158 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
51059432800 is a census tract in the Rollingwood area of Newington, VA. It scores 3.5/10 for landlords. It is home to 2,158 residents. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units761
Renter share14.8%
SVI overall0.15
Poverty rate3.9%
Median income$180,156
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
32
th percentile
Low
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newington and the region
Centroid at 38.7391, -77.2049 · click any tract to drill in
Why Rollingwood scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newington
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,560 rent vs county FMR
6.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newington
4.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newington
3.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newington
3.2
How Rollingwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 15
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 39%Socioeconomic
- 9%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 6%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 69Total filings over 4 yrs
- 7.72%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.8%Peak (2012)
- 20Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 150% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Rollingwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.6%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.2%Food insecurity
- 6.0%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 6.8%No health insurance
- 12.7%Frequent mental distress
- 21.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Rollingwood
The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Cost burden runs 30% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. SNAP participation runs 6.0% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.2% against 17.8% nationally.
Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.8/10. The filing record is not thin: 69 evictions over 4 years of observation. It sits 0.8 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
Filings peaked in 2012 at 9.8% of renter households. At $2,560 a month, rents run 9% under what the rest of Newington commands. In a typical year about 7.7% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #57,812 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059432800
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059432800?
Census tract 51059432800 in the Rollingwood neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059432800?
Median gross rent is $2,560/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059432800?
3.9% of residents in tract 51059432800 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,158.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059432800?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 39th, household 9th, minority 70th, housing 6th.
Q5
Is tract 51059432800 considered part of Rollingwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059432800 fall within Rollingwood (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059432800?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 69 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059432800 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.72% of renter households, peaking at 9.8% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059432800 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059432800 compare to Newington overall?
Tract 51059432800 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Newington at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newington; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newington
Top eight tracts in Newington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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