Keene Mill Manor Eviction Risk: Lower , West Springfield
Tract 51059430802 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,032 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
51059430802 is a census tract in the Keene Mill Manor area of West Springfield, VA. It scores 3.9/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,032. 42% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across West Springfield and the region
Centroid at 38.7886, -77.2271 · click any tract to drill in
Why Keene Mill Manor scores 3.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Keene Mill Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 22%Socioeconomic
- 54%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 44%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 43Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.17%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.5%Peak (2016)
- 13Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Keene Mill Manor. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.3%Housing insecurity
- 5.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.2%Food insecurity
- 6.1%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 7.3%No health insurance
- 13.0%Frequent mental distress
- 23.2%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Keene Mill Manor
Cost burden runs 62% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.2/10.
At $1,756 a month, rents run 28% under what the rest of West Springfield commands. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10.
SNAP participation runs 6.1% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.2% against 17.8% nationally.
Court records carry 43 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 2.5% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.2% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 40th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 18% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Against average income of $120,870, annual rent is just 17%. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
About tract 51059430802
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059430802?
What is the average rent in tract 51059430802?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059430802?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059430802?
Is tract 51059430802 considered part of Keene Mill Manor?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059430802?
What share of households in tract 51059430802 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51059430802 compare to West Springfield overall?
Highest-risk tracts in West Springfield
Top eight tracts in West Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.