Neighborhood · Ranked #17,455 of 84,120 nationally

Sweet Briar Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Dumbarton

Tract 51087200409 · Henrico County, VA · pop 2,998 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Here is how census tract 51087200409, in the Sweet Briar Park neighborhood of Dumbarton, looks to a landlord: a 6.9/10 eviction-risk score (Elevated tier) across a population of 2,998. That is riskier than about 93% of US census tracts.

About 65% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 20% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,796 monthly, set against $64,311 in average yearly household income, roughly 34% of income at the averages. Renters make up 54% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.7

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 35% Stable renters 19% Owners 46%

Tract context

Occupied units789

Renter share54.1%

SVI overall0.64

Poverty rate11.8%

Median income$64,311

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Dumbarton and the region

Centroid at 37.6270, -77.5190 · click any tract to drill in

Why Sweet Briar Park scores 6.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Dumbarton

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.5

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

11.8% poverty · this tract

3.0

Supply constraint

$1,796 rent vs county FMR

5.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Dumbarton

7.8

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Dumbarton

9.1

Housing court bias

Inherited from Dumbarton

6.0

How Sweet Briar Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 64

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

66%Socioeconomic
39%Household composition
73%Racial/ethnic minority
60%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

152Total filings over 2 yrs
22.21%Avg annual filing rate
25.4%Peak (2016)
87Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Sweet Briar Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

23.0%Housing insecurity
15.5%Utility-shutoff threat
29.1%Food insecurity
27.1%SNAP enrollment
15.2%Transit barriers
16.7%No health insurance
20.9%Frequent mental distress
39.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Sweet Briar Park

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 9.1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dumbarton, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 152 eviction filings here over 2 tracked years, with about 22.2% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 25.4% of renter households in 2016.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 64th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200409

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200409?

Census tract 51087200409 in the Sweet Briar Park neighborhood scores 6.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51087200409?

Median gross rent is $1,796/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200409?

11.8% of residents in tract 51087200409 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,998.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200409?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 64th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 66th, household 39th, minority 73th, housing 60th.

Is tract 51087200409 considered part of Sweet Briar Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200409 fall within Sweet Briar Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087200409?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 152 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087200409 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.21% of renter households, peaking at 25.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51087200409 struggle to pay rent?

About 23.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51087200409 compare to Dumbarton overall?

Tract 51087200409 scores 6.7/10, higher than the parent city of Dumbarton at 6.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dumbarton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dumbarton

Top eight tracts in Dumbarton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.