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Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally

Sweet Briar Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Dumbarton

Tract 51087200418 · Henrico County, VA · pop 3,290 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Tract 51087200418 sits in the Sweet Briar Park area of Dumbarton, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 7.3/10. It sits 3.0 points above the Henrico County average of 4.3.

Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 38% Stable renters 25% Owners 37%
Tract context
Occupied units1,296
Renter share62.7%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate21.4%
Median income$67,031

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 5 tracts In Sweet Briar Park
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Dumbarton
Very High
Within county
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 85 tracts In Henrico County
Very High
Within state
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#24 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dumbarton and the region

Centroid at 37.6208, -77.5150 · click any tract to drill in

Why Sweet Briar Park scores 7.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dumbarton
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
21.4% poverty · this tract
5.4
Supply constraint
$1,670 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dumbarton
7.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dumbarton
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dumbarton
7.0

How Sweet Briar Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Sweet Briar Park risk score vs. parent city / county / state7.3This tracttract 2004185.9Dumbartonparent city4.3Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 89

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Sweet Briar Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Sweet Briar Park

The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 9.7/10. 26% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Cost burden runs 60% here against 47.8% across Henrico County. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.6/10. The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

At $1,670 a month, rents run 18% over what the rest of Dumbarton commands. Food insecurity runs 25.7% against 17.8% nationally.

Housing insecurity runs 21.2% against 14.2% nationally. Nationally it ranks #11,153 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.1 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $67,031.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200418

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200418?

Census tract 51087200418 in the Sweet Briar Park neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51087200418?

Median gross rent is $1,670/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200418?

21.4% of residents in tract 51087200418 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,290.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200418?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 67th, minority 84th, housing 79th.
Q5

Is tract 51087200418 considered part of Sweet Briar Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200418 fall within Sweet Briar Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51087200418 struggle to pay rent?

About 21.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51087200418 compare to Dumbarton overall?

Tract 51087200418 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Dumbarton at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dumbarton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dumbarton

Top eight tracts in Dumbarton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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