Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally
Sweet Briar Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dumbarton
Tract 51087200418 · Henrico County, VA · pop 3,290 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Tract 51087200418 covers the Sweet Briar Park neighborhood of Dumbarton in Virginia. Home to 3,290 residents, it scores 7.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #2,528 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
60% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 26% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,670 monthly, set against $67,031 in average yearly household income, roughly 30% of income at the averages. About 63% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 38%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 37%
Tract context
Occupied units1,296
Renter share62.7%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate21.4%
Median income$67,031
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
86
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dumbarton and the region
Centroid at 37.6208, -77.5150 · click any tract to drill in
Why Sweet Briar Park scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dumbarton
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
21.4% poverty · this tract
5.4
Supply constraint
$1,670 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dumbarton
7.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dumbarton
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dumbarton
7.0
How Sweet Briar Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 89
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 91%Socioeconomic
- 67%Household composition
- 84%Racial/ethnic minority
- 79%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Sweet Briar Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 21.2%Housing insecurity
- 13.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 25.7%Food insecurity
- 22.1%SNAP enrollment
- 13.4%Transit barriers
- 15.9%No health insurance
- 20.2%Frequent mental distress
- 35.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Sweet Briar Park
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 9.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dumbarton, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 89th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
In CDC survey modeling, about 21.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 13.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087200418
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200418?
Census tract 51087200418 in the Sweet Briar Park neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087200418?
Median gross rent is $1,670/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200418?
21.4% of residents in tract 51087200418 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,290.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200418?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 67th, minority 84th, housing 79th.
Q5
Is tract 51087200418 considered part of Sweet Briar Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200418 fall within Sweet Briar Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51087200418 struggle to pay rent?
About 21.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51087200418 compare to Dumbarton overall?
Tract 51087200418 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Dumbarton at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dumbarton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dumbarton
Top eight tracts in Dumbarton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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