Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally
Sweet Briar Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dumbarton
Tract 51087200131 · Henrico County, VA · pop 1,815 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
51087200131 is a census tract in the Sweet Briar Park area of Tuckahoe, VA. It scores 5.5/10 for landlords. 37% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 24%
Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units809
Renter share47.8%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate17.3%
Median income$63,466
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
87
th percentile
High
Within state
89
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dumbarton and the region
Centroid at 37.6080, -77.5412 · click any tract to drill in
Why Sweet Briar Park scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dumbarton
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.3% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$1,429 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dumbarton
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dumbarton
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dumbarton
5.4
How Sweet Briar Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 74%Socioeconomic
- 8%Household composition
- 41%Racial/ethnic minority
- 24%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Sweet Briar Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.7%Housing insecurity
- 6.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.1%Food insecurity
- 8.9%SNAP enrollment
- 6.7%Transit barriers
- 7.9%No health insurance
- 16.0%Frequent mental distress
- 29.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Sweet Briar Park
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.7/10. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.6/10. It sits 1.2 points above the Henrico County average of 4.3.
On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.5/10. On the national scale it lands near the 72nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 4.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. roughly one in two of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
Average gross rent is $1,429, close to the Tuckahoe average. Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $63,466. 48% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087200131
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200131?
Census tract 51087200131 in the Sweet Briar Park neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087200131?
Median gross rent is $1,429/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200131?
17.3% of residents in tract 51087200131 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,815.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200131?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 8th, minority 41th, housing 24th.
Q5
Is tract 51087200131 considered part of Sweet Briar Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200131 fall within Sweet Briar Park (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51087200131 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51087200131 compare to Dumbarton overall?
Tract 51087200131 scores 5.5/10, lower than the parent city of Dumbarton at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dumbarton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dumbarton
Top eight tracts in Dumbarton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Grayson Hill
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Wedgewood
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Gayton Green
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Wedgewood
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Tuckahoe Village West
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Grayson Hill
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Drouin Hill
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Westbriar
3.2
/ 10 · Low
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