Neighborhood · Ranked #22,303 of 84,120 nationally

Sweet Briar Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Dumbarton

Tract 51087200417 · Henrico County, VA · pop 2,237 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

With a score of 6.8/10, tract 51087200417 in Sweet Briar Park in Dumbarton ranks in the Elevated tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 2,237 residents. On the national scale it ranks #7,453 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 63% of renter households, a severe level, and 37% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,323 a month while the average household earns $44,513 a year, roughly 36% of income at the averages. About 92% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.2

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 58% Stable renters 34% Owners 8%

Tract context

Occupied units1,448

Renter share91.6%

SVI overall0.67

Poverty rate7.0%

Median income$44,513

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Dumbarton and the region

Centroid at 37.6140, -77.5092 · click any tract to drill in

Why Sweet Briar Park scores 6.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Dumbarton

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.5

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

7.0% poverty · this tract

1.8

Supply constraint

$1,323 rent vs county FMR

2.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Dumbarton

7.7

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Dumbarton

9.8

Housing court bias

Inherited from Dumbarton

7.0

How Sweet Briar Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 67

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

83%Socioeconomic
59%Household composition
62%Racial/ethnic minority
32%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Sweet Briar Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

14.8%Housing insecurity
9.4%Utility-shutoff threat
18.9%Food insecurity
16.4%SNAP enrollment
9.9%Transit barriers
12.9%No health insurance
16.2%Frequent mental distress
38.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Sweet Briar Park

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dumbarton, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 14.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 67th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200417

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200417?

Census tract 51087200417 in the Sweet Briar Park neighborhood scores 6.2/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51087200417?

Median gross rent is $1,323/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200417?

7.0% of residents in tract 51087200417 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,237.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200417?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 59th, minority 62th, housing 32th.

Is tract 51087200417 considered part of Sweet Briar Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200417 fall within Sweet Briar Park (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51087200417 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51087200417 compare to Dumbarton overall?

Tract 51087200417 scores 6.2/10, right in line with the parent city of Dumbarton at 6.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dumbarton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dumbarton

Top eight tracts in Dumbarton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.