Within neighborhood
75
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #13,812 of 84,120 nationally
Sweet Briar Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Dumbarton
Tract 51087200417 · Henrico County, VA · pop 2,237 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
Tract 51087200417 sits in the Sweet Briar Park area of Dumbarton, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 6.8/10. It is home to 2,237 residents. Severe burden reaches 37%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
6.8
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 58%
Stable renters 34%
Owners 8%
Tract context
Occupied units1,448
Renter share91.6%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate7.0%
Median income$44,513
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
97
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dumbarton and the region
Centroid at 37.6140, -77.5092 · click any tract to drill in
Why Sweet Briar Park scores 6.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dumbarton
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.0% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$1,323 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dumbarton
7.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dumbarton
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dumbarton
7.0
How Sweet Briar Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 67
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 83%Socioeconomic
- 59%Household composition
- 62%Racial/ethnic minority
- 32%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Sweet Briar Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.8%Housing insecurity
- 9.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.9%Food insecurity
- 16.4%SNAP enrollment
- 9.9%Transit barriers
- 12.9%No health insurance
- 16.2%Frequent mental distress
- 38.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Sweet Briar Park
What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10. Against Henrico County at 47.8%, 63% of renters here are cost-burdened. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 9.7/10.
It sits 2.5 points above the Henrico County average of 4.3. 92% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Set annual rent against average income of $44,513 and the ratio lands at 36%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.6/10. That is riskier than roughly 84% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.6 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
Average gross rent is $1,323, close to the Dumbarton average.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087200417
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200417?
Census tract 51087200417 in the Sweet Briar Park neighborhood scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087200417?
Median gross rent is $1,323/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200417?
7.0% of residents in tract 51087200417 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,237.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200417?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 59th, minority 62th, housing 32th.
Q5
Is tract 51087200417 considered part of Sweet Briar Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200417 fall within Sweet Briar Park (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51087200417 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51087200417 compare to Dumbarton overall?
Tract 51087200417 scores 6.8/10, higher than the parent city of Dumbarton at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dumbarton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dumbarton
Top eight tracts in Dumbarton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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