Neighborhood · Dumbarton, VA

Sweet Briar Park Eviction Risk: Moderate

5 census tracts · pop 15,354 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.7/10 · range 4.5–7.3

Sweet Briar Park takes in 5 census tracts of Dumbarton, VA, population 15,354. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 5.7/10, in the Moderate tier. Against a Dumbarton baseline of 31.0%, 61% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.

30% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 4.5 to 7.3, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. What pushes the score up most is tenant-organizing strength at 7.5/10.

Court records carry 241 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts. At $1,600 a month, rents sit 13% over what the rest of Dumbarton commands. Filing activity peaked in 2016 at 25.4% of renter households.

Judgments average 3.3% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $64,682.

55% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.8 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score

5.7

Moderate

5 tracts · population-weighted

Sweet Briar Park vs Dumbarton How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

61.4% +98%

Dumbarton: 31.0%

Average gross rent

$1,600 +13%

Dumbarton: $1,421

Average HH income

$64,682 +9%

Dumbarton: $59,085

Poverty rate

12.3% -6%

Dumbarton: 13.1%

Renter share

54.6% -22%

Dumbarton: 69.7%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Sweet Briar Park and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 5 tracts span score 4.5–7.3

Why Sweet Briar Park scores 5.7

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.5–6.5 across tracts

6.5

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 3.2–8.6 across tracts

6.8

Rent control risk

61% of income on rent · Range 3.2–7.8 across tracts

6.1

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–5.0 across tracts

3.8

Tenant organizing strength

55% renter households · Range 4.0–9.8 across tracts

7.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 5.0–7.0 across tracts

6.0

Economic stress

12.3% below poverty line · Range 1.8–5.4 across tracts

3.1

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.7–5.5 across tracts

4.4

Risk score comparison

Sweet Briar Park vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Sweet Briar Park?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 2.8 points from 4.5 to 7.3. This neighborhood crosses multiple risk tiers, so block-by-block conditions vary substantially.

Tracts as heat grid

7.3 6.8 5.5 5.4 4.5

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

5 tracts in Sweet Briar Park

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51087200418	7.3	3,290	60%	$1,670
51087200417	6.8	2,237	63%	$1,323
51087200131	5.5	1,815	50%	$1,429
51087200409	5.4	2,998	65%	$1,796
51087200305	4.5	5,014	64%	$1,623

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 64

Pop-weighted across 5 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 68%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 57%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 67%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 49%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Sweet Briar Park

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

241Total filings (sum)
12.82%Avg annual filing rate
25.4%Peak year (2016)
14.02%Latest filed (2016)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Sweet Briar Park

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

16.3%Housing insecurity
10.3%Utility shutoff threat
20.0%Food insecurity
17.0%SNAP enrollment
13.0%No health insurance
35.0%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Sweet Briar Park

What is the eviction-risk score for Sweet Briar Park?

Sweet Briar Park scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier) across 5 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Sweet Briar Park compare to Dumbarton overall?

Sweet Briar Park scores 0.2 points lower than Dumbarton overall (5.9/10). Renters spend 61% of income on rent vs 31% citywide. Average rent: $1,600 vs $1,421.

What is the average rent in Sweet Briar Park?

Average gross rent in Sweet Briar Park is $1,600/month (pop-weighted across 5 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Sweet Briar Park residents are renters?

55% of Sweet Briar Park households are renter-occupied (vs 70% in Dumbarton). The neighborhood has 15,354 residents.

Is Sweet Briar Park a high social-vulnerability area?

Sweet Briar Park sits in the 64th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Sweet Briar Park have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Sweet Briar Park is census tract 51087200418 (score 7.3/10). Across the 5 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.5 to 7.3, a spread of 2.8 points.

How safe is Sweet Briar Park for landlords?

Sweet Briar Park carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.7/10). Pop-weighted across 5 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Dumbarton as a whole (5.9/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.

What is the demographic breakdown of Sweet Briar Park?

Sweet Briar Park has 15,424 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (46.3%), Black (non-Hispanic) (19.1%), Hispanic / Latino (18.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Sweet Briar Park

5.4 Laurel Village 2 tracts · pop 7,275 5.3 Libbie Mill 3 tracts · pop 6,762 4.8 Wedgewood 3 tracts · pop 10,047 3.2 Laurel Lakes 2 tracts · pop 10,729 4.6 Grayson Hill 2 tracts · pop 10,031 3 Barrington Valley 2 tracts · pop 5,553

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Dumbarton

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Sweet Briar Park.

5.4 Libbie Mill 3 tracts · pop 6,762

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