Census Tract · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally

Montrose Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 51087201504 · Henrico County, VA · pop 3,780 · 42% of tract blocks fall in Montrose

51087201504 is a census tract in Montrose, VA. It scores 7.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,780 residents. The severe-burden share is 48%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

7.3

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 20% Stable renters 15% Owners 65%

Tract context

Occupied units1,828

Renter share35.5%

SVI overall0.76

Poverty rate30.1%

Median income$55,357

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Montrose and the region

Centroid at 37.4944, -77.3669 · click any tract to drill in

Why Montrose scores 7.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Montrose

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.5

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

30.1% poverty · this tract

7.5

Supply constraint

$963 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Montrose

7.8

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.6

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Montrose

9.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from Montrose

8.3

How Montrose compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 76

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

76%Socioeconomic
92%Household composition
86%Racial/ethnic minority
33%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
3%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

25.7%Housing insecurity
18.5%Utility-shutoff threat
31.6%Food insecurity
32.0%SNAP enrollment
16.5%Transit barriers
12.5%No health insurance
21.1%Frequent mental distress
41.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Montrose

It sits 3.0 points above the Henrico County average of 4.3. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.7/10.

On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.6/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10. SNAP participation runs 32.0% against 15.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 30%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Against Henrico County at 47.8%, 58% of renters here are cost-burdened. At $963 a month, rents run 26% under what the rest of Montrose commands.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 18.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Richmond. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 87% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.1 points hotter.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087201504

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087201504?

Census tract 51087201504 in Montrose scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51087201504?

Median gross rent is $963/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087201504?

30.1% of residents in tract 51087201504 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,780.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087201504?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 76th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 76th, household 92th, minority 86th, housing 33th.

What share of households in tract 51087201504 struggle to pay rent?

About 25.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 18.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51087201504 compare to Montrose overall?

Tract 51087201504 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Montrose at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Montrose; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51087201504 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Montrose

Top eight tracts in Montrose ranked by composite eviction-risk score.