Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #16,850 of 84,120 nationally
Montrose Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51087201504 · Henrico County, VA · pop 3,780 · 42% of tract blocks fall in Montrose
The Elevated-tier score of 7.4/10 for census tract 51087201504 reflects conditions in Montrose, Virginia. On the national scale it ranks #1,908 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 58% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 48% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $963 a month against an average household income of $55,357 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. About 36% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 65%
Tract context
Occupied units1,828
Renter share35.5%
SVI overall0.76
Poverty rate30.1%
Median income$55,357
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
National
80
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Montrose and the region
Centroid at 37.4944, -77.3669 · click any tract to drill in
Why Montrose scores 5.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Montrose
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
30.1% poverty · this tract
7.5
Supply constraint
$963 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Montrose
7.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Montrose
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Montrose
8.3
How Montrose compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 76
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 76%Socioeconomic
- 92%Household composition
- 86%Racial/ethnic minority
- 33%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 3%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 25.7%Housing insecurity
- 18.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 31.6%Food insecurity
- 32.0%SNAP enrollment
- 16.5%Transit barriers
- 12.5%No health insurance
- 21.1%Frequent mental distress
- 41.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Montrose
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 9.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Montrose, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 76th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087201504
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087201504?
Census tract 51087201504 in Montrose scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087201504?
Median gross rent is $963/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087201504?
30.1% of residents in tract 51087201504 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,780.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087201504?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 76th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 76th, household 92th, minority 86th, housing 33th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 51087201504 struggle to pay rent?
About 25.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 18.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 51087201504 compare to Montrose overall?
Tract 51087201504 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Montrose at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Montrose; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q7
Was tract 51087201504 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Montrose
Top eight tracts in Montrose ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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