Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,188 of 84,120 nationally
Eastgate Eviction Risk: Moderate , South Riding
Tract 51107611804 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 7,794 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 51107611804 sits in the Eastgate neighborhood of South Riding, Virginia. It has a population of 7,794 and an eviction-risk score of 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). 37% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 20% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $2,817/month against a median household income of $189,199 — roughly 18% rent-to-income at the medians.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units2,695
Renter share22.0%
SVI overall0.20
Poverty rate5.8%
Median income$189,199
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
25
th percentile
Low
Within county
49
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
49
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across South Riding and the region
Centroid at 38.9167, -77.4926 · click any tract to drill in
Why Eastgate scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from South Riding
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.8% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$2,817 rent vs county FMR
7.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from South Riding
4.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from South Riding
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from South Riding
3.6
How Eastgate compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 20
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 23%Socioeconomic
- 55%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 6%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 9Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.69%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.7%Peak (2016)
- 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Eastgate. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.2%Housing insecurity
- 4.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.4%Food insecurity
- 6.5%SNAP enrollment
- 5.6%Transit barriers
- 6.8%No health insurance
- 13.1%Frequent mental distress
- 21.5%Any disability
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611804
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611804?
Census tract 51107611804 in the Eastgate neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611804?
Median gross rent is $2,817/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611804?
5.8% of residents in tract 51107611804 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,794.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611804?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 20th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 23th, household 55th, minority 76th, housing 6th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611804 considered part of Eastgate?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611804 fall within Eastgate (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611804?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 9 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611804 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.69% of renter households, peaking at 1.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611804 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.9% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611804 compare to South Riding overall?
Tract 51107611804 scores 5.2/10 — higher than the parent city of South Riding at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from South Riding eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in South Riding
Top eight tracts in South Riding ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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