Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally
Eastgate Eviction Risk: Lower , South Riding
Tract 51107611803 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 7,238 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
Census tract 51107611803 covers part of the Eastgate area of South Riding, VA, and scores 3.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 7,238. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 79%
Tract context
Occupied units2,215
Renter share21.6%
SVI overall0.15
Poverty rate4.1%
Median income$173,318
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
38
th percentile
Low
Within state
45
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across South Riding and the region
Centroid at 38.9042, -77.5139 · click any tract to drill in
Why Eastgate scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from South Riding
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,703 rent vs county FMR
6.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from South Riding
4.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from South Riding
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from South Riding
3.6
How Eastgate compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 15
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 15%Socioeconomic
- 32%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 10%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 10Total filings over 1 yrs
- 2.79%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.8%Peak (2016)
- 10Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Eastgate. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.4%Housing insecurity
- 4.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.8%Food insecurity
- 5.3%SNAP enrollment
- 5.0%Transit barriers
- 5.8%No health insurance
- 12.9%Frequent mental distress
- 20.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Eastgate
27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. SNAP participation runs 5.3% against 15.2% nationally.
The voucher gap is 16.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Food insecurity runs 8.8% against 17.8% nationally. Against Loudoun County at 37.5%, 42% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.8/10. Court records carry 10 eviction filings across 1 observed years. The worst year on record was 2016, when 2.8% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 2.8% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 38th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 22% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611803
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611803?
Census tract 51107611803 in the Eastgate neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611803?
Median gross rent is $2,703/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611803?
4.1% of residents in tract 51107611803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,238.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611803?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 32th, minority 73th, housing 10th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611803 considered part of Eastgate?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611803 fall within Eastgate (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611803?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 10 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611803 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.79% of renter households, peaking at 2.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611803 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611803 compare to South Riding overall?
Tract 51107611803 scores 3.8/10, right in line with the parent city of South Riding at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from South Riding eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in South Riding
Top eight tracts in South Riding ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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