2 census tracts · pop 15,032 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.9/10
· range 3.8–4
Eastgate takes in 2 census tracts of South Riding, VA, population 15,032. That produces an Eviction Risk Score of 3.9/10, Lower tier. Against a South Riding baseline of 26.5%, 40% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
Pulling the other way is economic stress, at 1.2/10. Severe burden reaches 23%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The voucher gap is 19.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears.
Running cool is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.8/10. Filings are well documented here: 19 across 2 observed tracts. SNAP participation is 5.9% of households versus 15.2% nationally.
The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 2.8% of renter households. On the high side is supply constraint at 7/10. Food insecurity affects 9.6% of adults, 8.2 points below the national rate.
Judgments average 1.0% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. At 22% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out. The closest comparables inside the same city are Avonlea and Ridings at Blue Springs.
Rent takes 18% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market.
The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
3.9
Lower
2 tracts · population-weighted
Eastgate vs South RidingHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority75%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport8%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Eastgate
Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
19Total filings (sum)
2.22%Avg annual filing rate
2.8%Peak year (2016)
2.22%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Eastgate
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
7.8%Housing insecurity
4.8%Utility shutoff threat
9.6%Food insecurity
5.9%SNAP enrollment
6.3%No health insurance
21.0%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Eastgate
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Eastgate?
Eastgate scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Eastgate compare to South Riding overall?
Eastgate scores 0.1 points lower than South Riding overall (4/10). Renters spend 40% of income on rent vs 27% citywide. Average rent: $2,762 vs $2,905.
Q3
What is the average rent in Eastgate?
Average gross rent in Eastgate is $2,762/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Eastgate residents are renters?
22% of Eastgate households are renter-occupied (vs 17% in South Riding). The neighborhood has 15,032 residents.
Q5
Is Eastgate a high social-vulnerability area?
Eastgate sits in the 18th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Eastgate have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Eastgate is census tract 51107611804 (score 4/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.8 to 4, a spread of 0.2 points.
Q7
How safe is Eastgate for landlords?
Eastgate carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.9/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to South Riding as a whole (4/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Eastgate?
Eastgate has 15,716 residents. Top groups: Asian (non-Hispanic) (38.5%), White (non-Hispanic) (31.5%), Hispanic / Latino (12.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
