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Neighborhood · South Riding, VA

Eastgate Eviction Risk: Lower

2 census tracts · pop 15,032 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 1.2/10 · range 1.1–1.2

Eastgate is a asian-white neighborhood in South Riding with 2 census tracts and a population of 15,032 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 1.2/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 40% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 23% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,762/month sits 5% lower than the South Riding citywide average ($2,905).

Risk score
1.2
Lower
2 tracts · population-weighted
Eastgate vs South Riding How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
39.7% +50%
South Riding: 26.5%
Average gross rent
$2,762 -5%
South Riding: $2,905
Average HH income
$181,552 -5%
South Riding: $190,701
Poverty rate
5.0% +25%
South Riding: 4.0%
Renter share
21.8% +32%
South Riding: 16.6%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Eastgate and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 1.1–1.2

Why Eastgate scores 1.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.3–6.3 across tracts
6.3
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts
7.0
Rent control risk
40% of income on rent · Range 4.6–4.6 across tracts
4.6
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.8–2.8 across tracts
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
22% renter households · Range 4.0–4.0 across tracts
4.0
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 3.6–3.6 across tracts
3.6
Economic stress
5.0% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.4 across tracts
1.2
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 6.7–7.2 across tracts
7.0
Risk score comparison

Eastgate vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Eastgate score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Eastgate: 1.21.2EastgateNeighborhoodParent city: 3.33.3Parent cityhost cityState: 3.83.8Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Eastgate

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51107611804 1.2 7,794 37% $2,817
51107611803 1.1 7,238 42% $2,703
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 18

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 19%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 44%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 75%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 8%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Eastgate

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 19Total filings (sum)
  • 2.22%Avg annual filing rate
  • 2.8%Peak year (2016)
  • 2.22%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Eastgate

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Eastgate

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Eastgate?

Eastgate scores 1.2/10 (Lower tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Eastgate compare to South Riding overall?

Eastgate scores 2.1 points lower than South Riding overall (3.3/10). Renters spend 40% of income on rent vs 27% citywide. Average rent: $2,762 vs $2,905.
Q3

What is the average rent in Eastgate?

Average gross rent in Eastgate is $2,762/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Eastgate residents are renters?

22% of Eastgate households are renter-occupied (vs 17% in South Riding). The neighborhood has 15,032 residents.
Q5

Is Eastgate a high social-vulnerability area?

Eastgate sits in the 18th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Eastgate have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Eastgate is census tract 51107611804 (score 1.2/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 1.1 to 1.2, a spread of 0.1 points.
Q7

How safe is Eastgate for landlords?

Eastgate carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (1.2/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to South Riding as a whole (3.3/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Eastgate?

Eastgate has 15,716 residents (Asian-White Neighborhood). Top groups: Asian (non-Hispanic) (38.5%), White (non-Hispanic) (31.5%), Hispanic / Latino (12.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Eastgate

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside South Riding

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Eastgate.

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