Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,465 of 84,120 nationally
Avonlea Eviction Risk: Moderate , South Riding
Tract 51107611807 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 7,920 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 51107611807 sits in the Avonlea neighborhood of South Riding, Virginia. It has a population of 7,920 and an eviction-risk score of 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). 14% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 5% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $3,501/month against a median household income of $218,482 — roughly 19% rent-to-income at the medians.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 87%
Tract context
Occupied units2,529
Renter share12.7%
SVI overall0.10
Poverty rate2.9%
Median income$218,482
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
12
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
23
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across South Riding and the region
Centroid at 38.9247, -77.5342 · click any tract to drill in
Why Avonlea scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from South Riding
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from South Riding
4.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from South Riding
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from South Riding
3.6
How Avonlea compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 10
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 7%Socioeconomic
- 22%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 10%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Avonlea. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.1%Food insecurity
- 4.6%SNAP enrollment
- 4.6%Transit barriers
- 5.4%No health insurance
- 12.2%Frequent mental distress
- 18.0%Any disability
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611807
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611807?
Census tract 51107611807 in the Avonlea neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611807?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 14% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611807?
2.9% of residents in tract 51107611807 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,920.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611807?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 10th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 22th, minority 76th, housing 10th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611807 considered part of Avonlea?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611807 fall within Avonlea (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51107611807 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51107611807 compare to South Riding overall?
Tract 51107611807 scores 4.6/10 — right in line with the parent city of South Riding at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from South Riding eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in South Riding
Top eight tracts in South Riding ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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