Diamond Hill Eviction Risk: Moderate

Pulling the other way is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. The poverty rate is 31%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the high side is economic stress at 7.9/10.

16% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. 16.7% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

The filing record is not thin: 605 evictions logged in this tract. Food insecurity affects 28.6% of adults, 10.8 points above the national rate. Filing activity peaked in 2015 at 50.0% of renter households.

Well under the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength, at 3/10. The most recent observed rate, 29.9% in 2016, is well off that peak. Among the 22 mapped neighborhoods of Lynchburg, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

For a like-for-like read, Tinbridge Hill and Miller Park score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.5/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Average gross rent runs $1,039, close to the Lynchburg average.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.3/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.