Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #13,119 of 84,120 nationally
Willard Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Norfolk
Tract 51710003100 · Norfolk city, VA · pop 2,753 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 5.7/10, tract 51710003100 in Willard Park in Norfolk ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 2,753 residents. It lands near the 63rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
56% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 47% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,222 a month against an average household income of $47,259 a year, roughly 31% of income at the averages. About 56% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 44%
Tract context
Occupied units1,077
Renter share56.1%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate32.6%
Median income$47,259
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
87
th percentile
High
Within county
87
th percentile
High
Within state
97
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Norfolk and the region
Centroid at 36.8819, -76.2569 · click any tract to drill in
Why Willard Park scores 5.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Norfolk
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
32.6% poverty · this tract
8.1
Supply constraint
$1,222 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Norfolk
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Norfolk
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Norfolk
5.0
How Willard Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 78
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 91%Socioeconomic
- 62%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 43%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 34%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 330Total filings over 2 yrs
- 24.76%Avg annual filing rate
- 26.5%Peak (2011)
- 145Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 24.0%Housing insecurity
- 18.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 32.2%Food insecurity
- 33.5%SNAP enrollment
- 17.0%Transit barriers
- 14.2%No health insurance
- 21.2%Frequent mental distress
- 43.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Willard Park
The score leans hardest on economic stress at 8.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Norfolk eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Norfolk City County average of 5.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 330 eviction filings here over 2 tracked years, with about 24.8% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 26.5% of renter households in 2011.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51710003100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51710003100?
Census tract 51710003100 in the Willard Park neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51710003100?
Median gross rent is $1,222/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51710003100?
32.6% of residents in tract 51710003100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,753.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51710003100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 62th, minority 76th, housing 43th.
Q5
Is tract 51710003100 considered part of Willard Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51710003100 fall within Willard Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51710003100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 330 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51710003100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 24.76% of renter households, peaking at 26.5% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51710003100 struggle to pay rent?
About 24.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 18.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51710003100 compare to Norfolk overall?
Tract 51710003100 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Norfolk at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Norfolk eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51710003100 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Norfolk
Top eight tracts in Norfolk ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Brambleton
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Campostella Heights
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Huntersville
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Brambleton
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Huntersville
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Miller Heights
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Edgewater
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Brambleton
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
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