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Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally

Oakhurst Eviction Risk: Moderate , Petersburg

Tract 51730811200 · Petersburg city, VA · pop 3,865 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Census tract 51730811200 covers part of the Oakhurst area of Petersburg, VA, and scores 5.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.9/10.

Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31% Stable renters 18% Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units1,911
Renter share49.1%
SVI overall0.99
Poverty rate12.7%
Median income$51,049

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Oakhurst
Moderate
Within parent city
30 th percentile
Rank, 30th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 11 tracts In Petersburg
Low
Within county
30 th percentile
Rank, 30th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 11 tracts In Petersburg city
Low
Within state
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#370 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Petersburg and the region

Centroid at 37.2009, -77.3551 · click any tract to drill in

Why Oakhurst scores 5.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Petersburg
8.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.8
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.7% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$1,228 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Petersburg
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Petersburg
9.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Petersburg
7.3

How Oakhurst compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Oakhurst risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.3This tracttract 8112005.9Petersburgparent city6.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 99

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,579Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 38.82%Avg annual filing rate
  • 46.6%Peak (2016)
  • 445Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2010 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 51730811200
Filings climbed 92% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Oakhurst

On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.7/10. 63% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Petersburg City average of 48.7%.

27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.9/10.

Court records carry 2,579 eviction filings across 7 observed years. Against the Petersburg City average of 6.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.8 points.

SNAP participation runs 22.6% against 15.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2016, when 46.6% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 38.8% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #28,095 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.9/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

Average gross rent is $1,228, close to the Petersburg average.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51730811200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51730811200?

Census tract 51730811200 in the Oakhurst neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51730811200?

Median gross rent is $1,228/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51730811200?

12.7% of residents in tract 51730811200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,865.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51730811200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 95th, minority 90th, housing 99th.
Q5

Is tract 51730811200 considered part of Oakhurst?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51730811200 fall within Oakhurst (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51730811200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,579 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51730811200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 38.82% of renter households, peaking at 46.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51730811200 struggle to pay rent?

About 19.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51730811200 compare to Petersburg overall?

Tract 51730811200 scores 5.3/10, lower than the parent city of Petersburg at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Petersburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Petersburg

Top eight tracts in Petersburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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