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Neighborhood · Gainesville, VA

Waterfall Village Eviction Risk: Moderate

1 census tracts · pop 7,727 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.9/10 · range 4.9-4.9

Waterfall Village is a diverse neighborhood in Gainesville with 1 census tract and a population of 7,727 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 4.9/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 46% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 9% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,767/month sits 21% higher than the Gainesville citywide average ($2,283).

Risk score
4.9
Moderate
1 tracts · population-weighted
Waterfall Village vs Gainesville How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
45.8% +44%
Gainesville: 31.7%
Average gross rent
$2,767 +21%
Gainesville: $2,283
Average HH income
$206,463 +22%
Gainesville: $168,978
Poverty rate
4.7% +20%
Gainesville: 3.9%
Renter share
8.3% -50%
Gainesville: 16.5%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Waterfall Village and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 4.9-4.9

Why Waterfall Village scores 4.9

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2-3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.4-6.4 across tracts
6.4
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 6.6-6.6 across tracts
6.6
Rent control risk
46% of income on rent · Range 6.8-6.8 across tracts
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.2-3.2 across tracts
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
8% renter households · Range 3.9-3.9 across tracts
3.9
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 4.8-4.8 across tracts
4.8
Economic stress
4.7% below poverty line · Range 1.2-1.2 across tracts
1.2
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 7.0-7.0 across tracts
7.0
Risk score comparison

Waterfall Village vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0-10 scale).

Waterfall Village score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Waterfall Village: 4.94.9Waterfall VillageNeighborhoodParent city: 5.25.2Parent cityhost cityState: 5.15.1Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.25.2U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

1 tracts in Waterfall Village

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51153901509 4.9 7,727 46% $2,767
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 6

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 13%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 26%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 53%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 2%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Waterfall Village

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

  • 7Total filings (sum)
  • 5.19%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.2%Peak year (2016)
  • 5.19%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Waterfall Village

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Waterfall Village

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Waterfall Village?

Waterfall Village scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

Q2

How does Waterfall Village compare to Gainesville overall?

Waterfall Village scores 0.3 points lower than Gainesville overall (5.2/10). Renters spend 46% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $2,767 vs $2,283.

Q3

What is the average rent in Waterfall Village?

Average gross rent in Waterfall Village is $2,767/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.

Q4

What percentage of Waterfall Village residents are renters?

8% of Waterfall Village households are renter-occupied (vs 16% in Gainesville). The neighborhood has 7,727 residents.

Q5

Is Waterfall Village a high social-vulnerability area?

Waterfall Village sits in the 6th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Q6

How safe is Waterfall Village for landlords?

Waterfall Village carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.9/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Gainesville as a whole (5.2/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.

Q7

What is the demographic breakdown of Waterfall Village?

Waterfall Village has 7,915 residents (Diverse Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (59.8%), Black (non-Hispanic) (15.7%), Hispanic / Latino (12.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Waterfall Village

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Gainesville

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Waterfall Village.

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