Neighborhood · Ranked #33,355 of 84,120 nationally

Highland Chase Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lake Ridge

Tract 51153901225 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,961 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

For landlords sizing up Highland Chase in Lake Ridge, census tract 51153901225 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of $1/10. On the national scale it ranks #22,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

49% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 31% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,173 a month against an average household income of $136,450 a year, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 8% of occupied homes.

Risk score

5.3

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 4% Owners 92%

Tract context

Occupied units1,533

Renter share8.2%

SVI overall0.55

Poverty rate4.3%

Median income$136,450

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6693, -77.3220 · click any tract to drill in

Why Highland Chase scores 5.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lake Ridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

4.3% poverty · this tract

1.1

Supply constraint

$2,173 rent vs county FMR

4.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lake Ridge

4.2

How Highland Chase compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 55

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

28%Socioeconomic
58%Household composition
70%Racial/ethnic minority
76%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

15Total filings over 1 yrs
9.26%Avg annual filing rate
9.3%Peak (2016)
15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

10.3%Housing insecurity
6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
11.2%Food insecurity
7.6%SNAP enrollment
6.3%Transit barriers
8.9%No health insurance
13.9%Frequent mental distress
26.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Highland Chase

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 5.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 15 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 9.3% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 9.3% of renter households in 2016.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901225

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901225?

Census tract 51153901225 in the Highland Chase neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901225?

Median gross rent is $2,173/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901225?

4.3% of residents in tract 51153901225 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,961.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901225?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 55th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 58th, minority 70th, housing 76th.

Is tract 51153901225 considered part of Highland Chase?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901225 fall within Highland Chase (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901225?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901225 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.26% of renter households, peaking at 9.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901225 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901225 compare to Lake Ridge overall?

Tract 51153901225 scores 5.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Lake Ridge at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge

Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.