Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally
Highland Chase Eviction Risk: Lower , Lake Ridge
Tract 51153901225 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,961 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Tract 51153901225 sits in the Highland Chase area of Lake Ridge eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.3/10. The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units1,533
Renter share8.2%
SVI overall0.55
Poverty rate4.3%
Median income$136,450
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
20
th percentile
Low
Within county
35
th percentile
Low
Within state
26
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region
Centroid at 38.6693, -77.3220 · click any tract to drill in
Why Highland Chase scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lake Ridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.3% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$2,173 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Ridge
4.2
How Highland Chase compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 55
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 28%Socioeconomic
- 58%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 76%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 15Total filings over 1 yrs
- 9.26%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.3%Peak (2016)
- 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.3%Housing insecurity
- 6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.2%Food insecurity
- 7.6%SNAP enrollment
- 6.3%Transit barriers
- 8.9%No health insurance
- 13.9%Frequent mental distress
- 26.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Highland Chase
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.1/10. 49% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Prince William County average of 43.3%.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 15 filings here across 1 tracked years.
It sits 0.8 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. SNAP participation runs 7.6% against 15.2% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 9.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 9.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 27% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 8% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.9/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.9 points cooler.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901225
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901225?
Census tract 51153901225 in the Highland Chase neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901225?
Median gross rent is $2,173/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901225?
4.3% of residents in tract 51153901225 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,961.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901225?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 55th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 58th, minority 70th, housing 76th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901225 considered part of Highland Chase?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901225 fall within Highland Chase (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901225?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901225 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.26% of renter households, peaking at 9.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901225 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901225 compare to Lake Ridge overall?
Tract 51153901225 scores 3.3/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge
Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
The Heights
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Holly Ridge
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Windsor Park
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
51153901222
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
The Heights
3.3
/ 10 · Low
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