Census Tract · Ranked #40,134 of 84,120 nationally

Lake Ridge Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 51153901222 · Prince William County, VA · pop 2,624

The Moderate-tier score of 5.5/10 for census tract 51153901222 reflects conditions in Lake Ridge in Prince William County, Virginia. On the national scale it ranks #37,647 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

33% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 7% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,381 monthly, set against $129,722 in average yearly household income, roughly 22% of income at the averages. Renters make up 15% of occupied homes.

Risk score

4.8

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 10% Owners 85%

Tract context

Occupied units880

Renter share14.5%

SVI overall0.32

Poverty rate4.0%

Median income$129,722

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6996, -77.3053 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lake Ridge scores 4.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lake Ridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

4.0% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,381 rent vs county FMR

5.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lake Ridge

4.2

How Lake Ridge compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 32

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

46%Socioeconomic
70%Household composition
59%Racial/ethnic minority
5%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

1Total filings over 1 yrs
0.71%Avg annual filing rate
0.7%Peak (2016)
1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.6%Housing insecurity
5.8%Utility-shutoff threat
9.9%Food insecurity
6.9%SNAP enrollment
6.0%Transit barriers
7.6%No health insurance
15.2%Frequent mental distress
25.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lake Ridge

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 5.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 0.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 0.7% of renter households in 2016.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 32nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901222

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901222?

Census tract 51153901222 in Lake Ridge scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901222?

Median gross rent is $2,381/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901222?

4.0% of residents in tract 51153901222 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,624.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901222?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 46th, household 70th, minority 59th, housing 5th.

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901222?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901222 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.71% of renter households, peaking at 0.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901222 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901222 compare to Lake Ridge overall?

Tract 51153901222 scores 4.8/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge

Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.