Within parent city
40
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Lake Ridge Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51153901222 · Prince William County, VA · pop 2,624
With a score of 3.4/10, tract 51153901222 in Lake Ridge, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,624 residents. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units880
Renter share14.5%
SVI overall0.32
Poverty rate4.0%
Median income$129,722
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
44
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
National
29
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region
Centroid at 38.6996, -77.3053 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lake Ridge scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lake Ridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,381 rent vs county FMR
5.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Ridge
4.2
How Lake Ridge compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 32
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 46%Socioeconomic
- 70%Household composition
- 59%Racial/ethnic minority
- 5%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1Total filings over 1 yrs
- 0.71%Avg annual filing rate
- 0.7%Peak (2016)
- 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.6%Housing insecurity
- 5.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.9%Food insecurity
- 6.9%SNAP enrollment
- 6.0%Transit barriers
- 7.6%No health insurance
- 15.2%Frequent mental distress
- 25.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lake Ridge
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. Against Prince William County at 43.3%, around a third of renters here are cost-burdened. Average gross rent is $2,381, 17% above the Lake Ridge average.
On the high side, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Court records carry 1 eviction filings across 1 observed years.
SNAP participation runs 6.9% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.9% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 0.7 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 0.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 0.7% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 29% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 15% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901222
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901222?
Census tract 51153901222 in Lake Ridge scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901222?
Median gross rent is $2,381/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901222?
4.0% of residents in tract 51153901222 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,624.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901222?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 46th, household 70th, minority 59th, housing 5th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901222?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901222 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.71% of renter households, peaking at 0.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901222 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901222 compare to Lake Ridge overall?
Tract 51153901222 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge
Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
The Heights
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Holly Ridge
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Windsor Park
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
The Heights
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Highland Chase
3.3
/ 10 · Low
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