Neighborhood · Ranked #23,426 of 84,120 nationally

Holly Ridge Eviction Risk: Elevated , Lake Ridge

Tract 51153901221 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,449 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

The Holly Ridge area of Lake Ridge is where census tract 51153901221 sits, home to 6,449 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 6.1/10. That is riskier than roughly 76% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 57% of renter households, a severe level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,935 a month against an average household income of $102,325 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. About 43% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

6.1

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 18% Owners 58%

Tract context

Occupied units2,313

Renter share42.6%

SVI overall0.34

Poverty rate8.5%

Median income$102,325

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6921, -77.3154 · click any tract to drill in

Why Holly Ridge scores 6.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lake Ridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

8.5% poverty · this tract

2.1

Supply constraint

$1,935 rent vs county FMR

3.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lake Ridge

4.2

How Holly Ridge compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 34

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

44%Socioeconomic
28%Household composition
73%Racial/ethnic minority
20%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

121Total filings over 1 yrs
17.95%Avg annual filing rate
18.0%Peak (2016)
121Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.4%Housing insecurity
8.0%Utility-shutoff threat
13.5%Food insecurity
10.5%SNAP enrollment
7.7%Transit barriers
9.0%No health insurance
16.5%Frequent mental distress
28.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Holly Ridge

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 5.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 121 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 18.0% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 18.0% of renter households in 2016.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 34th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901221

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901221?

Census tract 51153901221 in the Holly Ridge neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901221?

Median gross rent is $1,935/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901221?

8.5% of residents in tract 51153901221 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,449.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901221?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 28th, minority 73th, housing 20th.

Is tract 51153901221 considered part of Holly Ridge?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901221 fall within Holly Ridge (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901221?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 121 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901221 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.95% of renter households, peaking at 18.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901221 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901221 compare to Lake Ridge overall?

Tract 51153901221 scores 6.1/10, higher than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge

Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.