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Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally

Holly Ridge Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lake Ridge

Tract 51153901221 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,449 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

With a score of 4.6/10, tract 51153901221 in the Holly Ridge area of Lake Ridge, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,449. 57% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Prince William County average of 43.3%.

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 18% Owners 58%
Tract context
Occupied units2,313
Renter share42.6%
SVI overall0.34
Poverty rate8.5%
Median income$102,325

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Holly Ridge
Moderate
Within parent city
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 11 tracts In Lake Ridge
High
Within county
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#29 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Elevated
Within state
68 th percentile
Rank, 68th percentileLowHigh
#698 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6921, -77.3154 · click any tract to drill in

Why Holly Ridge scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lake Ridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.5% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$1,935 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Ridge
4.2

How Holly Ridge compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Holly Ridge risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.6This tracttract 9012214.0Lake Ridgeparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 34

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 121Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 17.95%Avg annual filing rate
  • 18.0%Peak (2016)
  • 121Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Holly Ridge

What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. 27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.1/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 121 filings here across 1 tracked years.

The worst year on record was 2016, when 18.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 18.0% of renter households face a filing.

That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. It tracks the Prince William County average of 4.1 closely. Average gross rent is $1,935, close to the Lake Ridge average.

Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $102,325. 43% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901221

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901221?

Census tract 51153901221 in the Holly Ridge neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901221?

Median gross rent is $1,935/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901221?

8.5% of residents in tract 51153901221 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,449.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901221?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 28th, minority 73th, housing 20th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901221 considered part of Holly Ridge?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901221 fall within Holly Ridge (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901221?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 121 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901221 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.95% of renter households, peaking at 18.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901221 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901221 compare to Lake Ridge overall?

Tract 51153901221 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge

Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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