Holly Ridge Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lake Ridge
Tract 51153901221 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,449 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
With a score of 4.6/10, tract 51153901221 in the Holly Ridge area of Lake Ridge, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,449. 57% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Prince William County average of 43.3%.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region
Centroid at 38.6921, -77.3154 · click any tract to drill in
Why Holly Ridge scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Holly Ridge compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 34
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 44%Socioeconomic
- 28%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 20%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 121Total filings over 1 yrs
- 17.95%Avg annual filing rate
- 18.0%Peak (2016)
- 121Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.4%Housing insecurity
- 8.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.5%Food insecurity
- 10.5%SNAP enrollment
- 7.7%Transit barriers
- 9.0%No health insurance
- 16.5%Frequent mental distress
- 28.2%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Holly Ridge
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. 27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.1/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 121 filings here across 1 tracked years.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 18.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 18.0% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. It tracks the Prince William County average of 4.1 closely. Average gross rent is $1,935, close to the Lake Ridge average.
Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $102,325. 43% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
About tract 51153901221
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901221?
What is the average rent in tract 51153901221?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901221?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901221?
Is tract 51153901221 considered part of Holly Ridge?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901221?
What share of households in tract 51153901221 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51153901221 compare to Lake Ridge overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge
Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.