Neighborhood · Ranked #29,435 of 84,120 nationally

The Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lake Ridge

Tract 51153901209 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,564 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

The The Heights area of Lake Ridge is where census tract 51153901209 sits, home to 6,564 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 5.4/10. On the national scale it ranks #40,906 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

25% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a moderate level, and 15% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,049 a month while the average household earns $105,493 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. Renters make up 22% of occupied homes.

Risk score

5.6

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 17% Owners 77%

Tract context

Occupied units1,958

Renter share22.3%

SVI overall0.47

Poverty rate11.9%

Median income$105,493

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6664, -77.2970 · click any tract to drill in

Why The Heights scores 5.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lake Ridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

11.9% poverty · this tract

3.0

Supply constraint

$2,049 rent vs county FMR

3.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lake Ridge

4.2

How The Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 47

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

45%Socioeconomic
57%Household composition
75%Racial/ethnic minority
29%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

15Total filings over 1 yrs
3.09%Avg annual filing rate
3.1%Peak (2016)
15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within The Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

14.2%Housing insecurity
8.8%Utility-shutoff threat
17.6%Food insecurity
13.6%SNAP enrollment
9.0%Transit barriers
12.8%No health insurance
15.9%Frequent mental distress
32.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in The Heights

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 5.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 14.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 47th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901209

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901209?

Census tract 51153901209 in the The Heights neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901209?

Median gross rent is $2,049/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 25% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901209?

11.9% of residents in tract 51153901209 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,564.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901209?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 57th, minority 75th, housing 29th.

Is tract 51153901209 considered part of The Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901209 fall within The Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901209?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901209 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.09% of renter households, peaking at 3.1% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901209 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901209 compare to Lake Ridge overall?

Tract 51153901209 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge

Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.