Neighborhood · Ranked #21,326 of 84,120 nationally

The Heights Eviction Risk: Elevated , Lake Ridge

Tract 51153900302 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,463 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

The Elevated-tier score of 6.1/10 for census tract 51153900302 reflects conditions in the The Heights neighborhood of Lake Ridge, Virginia. It lands near the 77th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

45% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 36% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,861 a month while the average household earns $96,792 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. Renters make up 51% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.3

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 23% Stable renters 28% Owners 49%

Tract context

Occupied units2,107

Renter share51.4%

SVI overall0.66

Poverty rate14.5%

Median income$96,792

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6678, -77.2786 · click any tract to drill in

Why The Heights scores 6.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lake Ridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

14.5% poverty · this tract

3.6

Supply constraint

$1,861 rent vs county FMR

3.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lake Ridge

4.2

How The Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 66

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

59%Socioeconomic
62%Household composition
79%Racial/ethnic minority
56%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within The Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

17.2%Housing insecurity
10.9%Utility-shutoff threat
20.7%Food insecurity
16.7%SNAP enrollment
10.8%Transit barriers
13.1%No health insurance
17.6%Frequent mental distress
31.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in The Heights

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 5.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 17.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 66th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900302

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900302?

Census tract 51153900302 in the The Heights neighborhood scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153900302?

Median gross rent is $1,861/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900302?

14.5% of residents in tract 51153900302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,463.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900302?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 62th, minority 79th, housing 56th.

Is tract 51153900302 considered part of The Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900302 fall within The Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51153900302 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153900302 compare to Lake Ridge overall?

Tract 51153900302 scores 6.3/10, higher than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge

Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.