Neighborhood · Sudley, VA

Bull Run East Eviction Risk: Moderate

1 census tracts · pop 8,377 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.6/10 · range 4.6-4.6

Bull Run East is a hispanic-white neighborhood in Sudley with 1 census tract and a population of 8,377 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 4.6/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 49% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 24% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,135/month sits 0% lower than the Sudley citywide average ($2,139).

Risk score

4.6

Moderate

1 tracts · population-weighted

Bull Run East vs Sudley How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

49.2% +46%

Sudley: 33.6%

Average gross rent

$2,135 0%

Sudley: $2,139

Average HH income

$96,203 +4%

Sudley: $92,101

Poverty rate

2.5% -71%

Sudley: 8.6%

Renter share

38.7% +1%

Sudley: 38.4%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Bull Run East and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 4.6-4.6

Why Bull Run East scores 4.6

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2-3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.4-6.4 across tracts

6.4

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 6.6-6.6 across tracts

6.6

Rent control risk

49% of income on rent · Range 8.3-8.3 across tracts

8.3

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.1-3.1 across tracts

3.1

Tenant organizing strength

39% renter households · Range 8.1-8.1 across tracts

8.1

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 6.5-6.5 across tracts

6.5

Economic stress

2.5% below poverty line · Range 1.0-1.0 across tracts

1.0

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.2-4.2 across tracts

4.2

Risk score comparison

Bull Run East vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0-10 scale).

Census tracts

1 tracts in Bull Run East

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51153901602	4.6	8,377	49%	$2,135

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 37

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 48%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 31%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 79%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 19%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Bull Run East

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

104Total filings (sum)
9.82%Avg annual filing rate
9.8%Peak year (2016)
9.82%Latest filed (2016)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Bull Run East

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

14.6%Housing insecurity
8.2%Utility shutoff threat
16.7%Food insecurity
11.4%SNAP enrollment
14.7%No health insurance
29.8%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Bull Run East

What is the eviction-risk score for Bull Run East?

Bull Run East scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Bull Run East compare to Sudley overall?

Bull Run East scores 0.7 points lower than Sudley overall (5.3/10). Renters spend 49% of income on rent vs 34% citywide. Average rent: $2,135 vs $2,139.

What is the average rent in Bull Run East?

Average gross rent in Bull Run East is $2,135/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Bull Run East residents are renters?

39% of Bull Run East households are renter-occupied (vs 38% in Sudley). The neighborhood has 8,377 residents.

Is Bull Run East a high social-vulnerability area?

Bull Run East sits in the 37th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

How safe is Bull Run East for landlords?

Bull Run East carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.6/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Sudley as a whole (5.3/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Bull Run East?

Bull Run East has 7,912 residents (Hispanic-White Neighborhood). Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (48.3%), White (non-Hispanic) (31.7%), Black (non-Hispanic) (11.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Bull Run East

5.4 Iron Gate 2 tracts · pop 9,000 4.7 Kerrydale 2 tracts · pop 12,361 5.5 The Heights 5 tracts · pop 26,016 4.7 Southlake 2 tracts · pop 12,342 6.3 Marumsco Village 3 tracts · pop 10,059 6 Marumsco Hills 2 tracts · pop 8,902

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Sudley

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Bull Run East.

5.8 West Gate of Lomond 1 tracts · pop 4,688

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