Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #51,553 of 84,120 nationally
Forestdale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City
Tract 51153900404 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,702 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
The Moderate-tier score of 5.7/10 for census tract 51153900404 reflects conditions in the Forestdale neighborhood of Dale City, Virginia. On the national scale it ranks #31,146 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 64% of renter households, a severe level, and 3% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,818 monthly, set against $89,350 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 21% of occupied homes.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units1,697
Renter share21.4%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate16.8%
Median income$89,350
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
97
th percentile
Very High
Within state
62
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6407, -77.3215 · click any tract to drill in
Why Forestdale scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
16.8% poverty · this tract
4.2
Supply constraint
$1,818 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2
How Forestdale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 79
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 92%Socioeconomic
- 76%Household composition
- 88%Racial/ethnic minority
- 29%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 40Total filings over 1 yrs
- 9.59%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.6%Peak (2016)
- 40Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 19.9%Housing insecurity
- 11.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 25.0%Food insecurity
- 19.4%SNAP enrollment
- 12.2%Transit barriers
- 20.3%No health insurance
- 17.3%Frequent mental distress
- 36.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Forestdale
The score leans hardest on economic stress at 4.2/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dale City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 40 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 9.6% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 9.6% of renter households in 2016.
In CDC survey modeling, about 19.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 11.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900404
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900404?
Census tract 51153900404 in the Forestdale neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900404?
Median gross rent is $1,818/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900404?
16.8% of residents in tract 51153900404 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,702.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900404?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 76th, minority 88th, housing 29th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900404 considered part of Forestdale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900404 fall within Forestdale (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900404?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 40 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900404 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.59% of renter households, peaking at 9.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153900404 struggle to pay rent?
About 19.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153900404 compare to Dale City overall?
Tract 51153900404 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Evansdale
3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Brightwood Forest
2.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Daleview Manor
2.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Silverdale
2.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Princedale
2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Cloverdale
2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Neabsco Hills
1.9
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Mapledale
1.8
/ 10 · Very Low
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