Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally
Four Seasons Eviction Risk: Moderate , Montclair
Tract 51153901012 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,484 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51153901012 is a census tract in the Four Seasons area of Montclair, VA. It scores 4.8/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,484. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units1,650
Renter share20.1%
SVI overall0.25
Poverty rate10.2%
Median income$95,000
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
76
th percentile
High
Within state
73
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Montclair and the region
Centroid at 38.5975, -77.3237 · click any tract to drill in
Why Four Seasons scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Montclair
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.2% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$1,977 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Montclair
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Montclair
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Montclair
4.2
How Four Seasons compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 25
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 25%Socioeconomic
- 69%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 10%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 67Total filings over 1 yrs
- 29.65%Avg annual filing rate
- 29.7%Peak (2016)
- 67Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.1%Housing insecurity
- 5.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.7%Food insecurity
- 7.6%SNAP enrollment
- 5.6%Transit barriers
- 7.1%No health insurance
- 12.5%Frequent mental distress
- 32.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Four Seasons
Cost burden runs 53% here against 43.3% across Prince William County. Running cool, economic stress reads 2.6/10. 11% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
At $1,977 a month, rents run 16% under what the rest of Montclair commands. Court records carry 67 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Food insecurity runs 9.7% against 17.8% nationally.
On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.9/10. SNAP participation runs 7.6% against 15.2% nationally. Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.7 points.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 29.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 29.7% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 58th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 20% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901012
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901012?
Census tract 51153901012 in the Four Seasons neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901012?
Median gross rent is $1,977/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901012?
10.2% of residents in tract 51153901012 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,484.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901012?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 25th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 25th, household 69th, minority 53th, housing 10th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901012 considered part of Four Seasons?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901012 fall within Four Seasons (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901012?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 67 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901012 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 29.65% of renter households, peaking at 29.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901012 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901012 compare to Montclair overall?
Tract 51153901012 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Montclair at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Montclair eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Montclair
Top eight tracts in Montclair ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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