Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally
Carytown Eviction Risk: Lower , Richmond
Tract 51760040800 · Richmond city, VA · pop 1,443 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51760040800 covers part of the Carytown area of Richmond, VA, and scores 3.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 1,443 residents. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.8/10.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units748
Renter share48.5%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate10.5%
Median income$88,617
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
26
th percentile
Low
Within county
28
th percentile
Low
Within state
26
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Richmond and the region
Centroid at 37.5564, -77.4854 · click any tract to drill in
Why Carytown scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.5% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$1,392 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0
How Carytown compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 20%Socioeconomic
- 1%Household composition
- 28%Racial/ethnic minority
- 15%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 20%Grade B
- 42%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 85Total filings over 4 yrs
- 4.69%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.7%Peak (2013)
- 21Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 22% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Carytown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.7%Housing insecurity
- 5.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.6%Food insecurity
- 5.9%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 5.9%No health insurance
- 16.5%Frequent mental distress
- 23.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Carytown
The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.4/10.
Against Richmond City at 50.2%, 42% of renters here are cost-burdened. Food insecurity runs 7.6% against 17.8% nationally.
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.5/10. Against the Richmond City average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.0 points. SNAP participation runs 5.9% against 15.2% nationally.
Court records carry 85 eviction filings across 4 observed years. The worst year on record was 2013, when 5.7% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 4.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 27% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.2/10.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51760040800
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760040800?
Census tract 51760040800 in the Carytown neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51760040800?
Median gross rent is $1,392/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51760040800?
10.5% of residents in tract 51760040800 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,443.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51760040800?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 20th, household 1th, minority 28th, housing 15th.
Q5
Is tract 51760040800 considered part of Carytown?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760040800 fall within Carytown (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51760040800?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 85 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51760040800 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.69% of renter households, peaking at 5.7% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51760040800 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51760040800 compare to Richmond overall?
Tract 51760040800 scores 3.3/10, lower than the parent city of Richmond at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51760040800 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Richmond
Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Oregon Hill
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Pinehurts
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Gilpin Court
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Barton Heights
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Monroe Ward
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Chestnut Hill
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Creighton Court
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Carver
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
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